MLB Picks

The regression pendulum has swung a little too far the other way over the last month, with Spencer Arrighetti posting a 5.79 ERA despite a respectable 3.89 FIP.

He is poised to get back on track against the Detroit Tigers, who sit 26th in wOBA vs. righties the past two weeks.

Back the Houston Astros to -115.

Side note, sprinkle Manzardo to hit a home run and back Bazzana as well. Thank me later.

Getting nearly even money on a hitter with a .300 batting average, .519 SLG, .886 OPS, 58% hard hit rate, and a 16% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching is simply too good to pass up.

On the other side, Luis Castillo has been getting torched by left handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard hit rate.

At this price, it is very tough to stay away.

Zack Wheeler continues to limit hard contact and enters in excellent form, giving Philadelphia a clear edge. With the Mets likely turning to a bullpen game and their relievers allowing plenty of loud contact lately, the Phillies are well positioned to cover the run line.

I'd play the Boston Red Sox down to -108. 

The issue with Warren has always been that when he's not getting strikeouts, his average hard-hit rate gets exploited by his high-velocity stuff. He also generates whiffs mostly in the zone, pairing a 24% strikeout rate with a bottom-30 percentile chase rate. The more often you see him, the more success you have. Boston ranks fifth in MLB in doubles, gap-to-gap power that benefits from Fenway Park

The Kansas City Royals will need their bullpen to chew up a ton of innings against the Chicago White Sox, and it’s unlikely to hold up.

Royals relievers rank dead last in FIP this season and are not in good form, sitting 28th with a 5.35 FIP in June.

Back the White Sox to -145.

Jacob Misiorowski has allowed 0.33 runs per start since May 1, making it impossible for any offense to get going in the slightest.

He faced the Chicago Cubs during that stretch and pitched six innings of shutout ball while striking out eight batters. Predictably, that game went Under 7.5 runs.

I don’t see the Cubs scoring more than a run or two here, which puts a lot of pressure on the Milwaukee Brewers to score in bulk.

Bet the Under to -140.

Sugano versus Taj Bradley sets up as a strong YRFI look with both offenses carrying legitimate early inning upside. This matchup features a combined eight elite rated hitters and six strong bats per Batters-Box current season ratings, giving both lineups real firepower at the top. On the pitching side, neither arm inspires much confidence, as both sit near the bottom of the slate with poor matchup profiles across ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground ball rates. With both offenses trending well over the last few games and soft contact suppression from either starter, the -121 price on early runs looks playable.

I am a huge advocate for paying a little juice on hits props, and Owen Caissie to record a hit this evening is a go in my book at anything below -170. The young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against Michael McGreevy while producing a 27.8% barrel rate and .430 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching.

On the other side, the Cardinals right hander owns a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him. This is a spot where I am more than willing to lay a little extra juice.

We have two strong bullpens that are fully rested after having Thursday to rest, and both have sub-3.00 ERAs in the last 14 days. San Diego has ranked dead last in AVG (.216), and second-last in OPS (.652) and runs scored per game (3.5), and face a surging Roki Sasaki. L.A. faces Walker Buehler in a revenge spot and he’s in fine form, allowing just a single run in each of his last four starts

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.