MLB Picks

Eovaldi's contact profile is one of the worst in baseball right now, at least for a starting pitcher. His hard hit rate ranks in the bottom 20 percent of baseball, and his average exit velocity is in the bottom 30 percent. Against a Yankees lineup this disciplined, he is going to have a tough afternoon once they get into counts and force him to attack the zone. On the other side, Rodriguez is making his major league debut. That’s the analysis.

Padres righty Matt Waldron sports a career 5.19 ERA and 4.53 xFIP across 201 1/3 innings in the majors, and Cubbies veteran Jameson Taillon checks in with respective 4.55 and 4.80 marks this season while his fastball is clocking at a career-low 91.5 mph. Chicago is also rolling at the dish with an average of 6.2 runs per game and a top-ranked wOBA during its 14-6 heater, so I'm anticipating the North Siders to do the heavy lifting while the Friars chip in more than enough to send this total Over the number.

It’s not getting more square than this, but Yordan Alvarez at +310 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270. Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in most standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Chris Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career. Winds are blowing out, though there is some rain risk that could ruin this great spot. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.

Elly De La Cruz is on a heater, coming off a three-hit game with his 10th home run of the season, which he launched off the Colorado Rockies bullpen. He gets an elite matchup today vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers this year and likely owes bettors after escaping a home start vs. the San Diego Padres last time out. He threw 101 pitches — the second-most of his MLB career — which could impact him today at Great American Ball Park with winds blowing out. Few pitchers last year had a worse HR/FB rate than this Rockies starter. The Reds’ shortstop is slashing .400/.464/.880 over his last six games with four home runs and is climbing the NL MVP board. He’s been better vs. right-handers over his career, but if Colorado turns to a lefty, that’s fine too — he owns a 1.212 OPS vs. southpaws this year. It’s square, but that’s working right now.

Cardinals starter Andre Pallante hits the mound with a 4.26 ERA, 4.91 xFIP and an alarming 18.7% blast-contact rate. Add him sporting negative pitch values on two of his three most frequent offerings, and I’m expecting the Pirates to rough up the righty. The Bucs sport a ninth-ranked on-base percentage against right-handed arms for the year, and their 45.2% hard-hit rate is second in baseball during their current 3-5 slide. I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in at the dish against Pallante for the Pittsburgh lineup.

Soto and the Mets broke out at the dish Tuesday, and they’ll face another favorable matchup with Nationals righty Cade Cavalli allowing a healthy .409 wOBA to left-handed hitters and sporting a 5.73 ERA and 5.87 xFIP on the road. As long as Soto is priced incorrectly in this market, I’ll be betting and recommending him because the number should be much closer to -160 and still presents a slight edge at -150. 

I love the underdog spot for a Royals team that’s finally breaking out and riding its first wave of momentum this season with four straight wins. The bats are scorching, leading MLB in OPS over the past week while putting up 27 runs across their last three games. That’s trouble for Luis Severino, who’s been getting hit hard in Sacramento, carrying over last year’s 6.01 home ERA. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has allowed two ERs or fewer in four of five starts and is backed by a bullpen in top form.