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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 12, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.44 |
+101 
|
o8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.65 |
-106 
|
u9.0 -119
|
+1.5 -170
|
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 vs. American League Central.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0-1 in Matthews' last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Matthews' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Twins last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.59 |
-155
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +110 
|
|
4.29 |
+147 
|
u8.0 -108
|
+1.5 -115
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in Wheelers last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Wheelers last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Wheelers last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 8-0 in Leahys last 8 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Leahys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Leahys last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+159)
o0.5+159
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.88 |
-200
|
o9.5 +105
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.89 |
+195
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 +115
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Perkins' last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Tyler Soderstrom o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
+163
|
o9.0 -125 
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.50 |
-170
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Colorado
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Kellys last 5 starts vs. National League West.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.26 |
-138
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.22 |
+135
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
Houston
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
o0.5+226
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
-112
|
o8.0 -110 
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.41 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -160
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+192)
o0.5+192
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
+114 
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.36 |
-118
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +172
|
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 overall.
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
+104
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
|
4.24 |
-110
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -180
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-0 in Pirates last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Miami
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Junks last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Marlins last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+216)
o0.5+216
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.51 |
-154
|
o9.5 +100
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
4.10 |
+148
|
u9.5 -110
|
+1.5 -115
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
Washington
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 games as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.14 |
+116
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.13 |
-124
|
u9.0 -127
|
-1.5 +165
|
Seattle
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Millers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 games following a loss.
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.40 |
-118
|
o7.0 -120
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.05 |
+111
|
u7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -155
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+224)
o0.5+224
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.84 |
+160
|
o6.0 -500
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.64 |
-154
|
u9.0 -125
|
-1.5 +130
|
NY Mets
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Mets last 8 vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Braves are 9-0 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
o1.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
+135
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
5.39 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +145
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0-1 in Reds last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.02 |
-128
|
o8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.46 |
+125
|
u9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
Texas
- Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games following a win.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
+193
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -112
|
|
5.93 |
-200
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +105
|
Kansas City
- Over is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Lauers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in Lauers last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.97 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Pirates are 6-0 in Ashcrafts last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Miami
- Under is 4-0-1 in Phillips' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Marlins last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.79 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 vs. American League East.
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.86 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Reds are 7-0 in Abbotts last 7 starts vs. American League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 8-0 in Martins last 8 interleague starts.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Martins last 7 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 10-1 in Martins last 11 starts as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.21 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 7-0 in Scherzers last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Washington
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-1 in Cavallis last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.03 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.64 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nolas last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 overall.
Minnesota
- Under is 7-0 in Twins last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a road favorite.
LA Angels
- Angels are 4-0 in Urenas last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 21-5 in Angels last 26 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.05 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
BAL
@
MIN
Wed, Aug 12 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1000)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 85°.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Carlos Narvaez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 29.7° figure in the last two weeks.. Compared to last season, Carlos Narvaez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.8% to 21.1% this season.. Carlos Narvaez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .238 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .287 — a .049 deviation.
Total Bases
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 85°.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Coby Mayo has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.8% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last 14 days.. Coby Mayo has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last year's 87.5-mph EV.
PHI
@
STL
Wed, Aug 12 • 2:15 PM ET
Moneyline
STL (+147)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I just want to fade Zack Wheeler in a lot of places today. He is coming off a 116-pitch outing, his highest pitch count in more than five seasons. Making things worse, he threw just 32 pitches in his rain-shortened start before that and was pulled after 68 pitches in the start prior, after allowing five runs over three innings. There is also the ongoing distraction surrounding whether his foot has been on the rubber, giving him one more distraction while coming off a massive workload and not in great form. Kyle Leahy is a perfect home starter to back here, as he has quietly been one of the least-respected pitchers in baseball. He owns a 1.49 ERA over his last eight starts, with 40 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings, and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those outings. Wheeler is overpriced in this matchup, and I'll take the +146 that I'd play to +125.
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+291)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber brings real home run upside with a .333 ISO, two homers, a 50% hard-hit rate, and an 18.8% barrel rate over the last week. Leahy has allowed plenty of hard contact lately, while the Cardinals bullpen is giving up air contact. Schwarber has a clear power path.
TB
@
ATH
Wed, Aug 12 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Liam Hicks o0.5 Total Home Runs (+790)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Liam Hicks is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 stadium in MLB for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Perkins throws from, Liam Hicks will have an edge today.
Total Bases
Jeff McNeil o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 stadium in MLB for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Drew Rasmussen today.
COL
@
AZ
Wed, Aug 12 • 3:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 13th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Chase Field profiles as the #3 park in the majors for overall righty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Power-wise, Hunter Goodman has performed in the 100th percentile, having averaged 44.2 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total Bases
Ryan Waldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Waldschmidt in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Chase Field profiles as the #3 park in the majors for overall righty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Ryan Waldschmidt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Ryan Waldschmidt's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph recently.
HOU
@
SF
Wed, Aug 12 • 3:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for bats.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. With a 26.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Christian Walker finds himself in the 78th percentile for power.. Ranking in the 77th percentile, Christian Walker has notched a .343 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.
Total Bases
Victor Bericoto o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Victor Bericoto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for bats.. Victor Bericoto has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Victor Bericoto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIL
@
SD
Wed, Aug 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-121)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Under 8.5 leans on elite bullpen form and Milwaukee’s limited power. San Diego’s pen owns a 2.26 FIP over its last 26.2 innings, while Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 2.84 FIP and 0.34 HR/9 lately. Even with Padres power, late scoring may be tough to find today at Petco Park.
Moneyline
SD (+105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
San Diego has the better offensive profile with a 125 wRC+ over the last seven games, while Milwaukee owns just a 92 wRC+ against lefties and over the last week. Robbie Ray’s pre-trade form was strong, and Dustin May’s recent xERA gives the Padres a clear path at home today.
CLE
@
DET
Wed, Aug 12 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Eduardo Valencia u0.5 Total Hits (+157)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Kevin McGonigle will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
PIT
@
MIA
Wed, Aug 12 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+144)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Janson Junk.. Bryan Reynolds's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 43.9% on the season to 50% in the past week's worth of games.. By putting up a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bryan Reynolds finds himself in the 80th percentile.
Total Hits
Jakob Marsee u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jakob Marsee in the 25th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. LoanDepot Park has the 4th-deepest right field fences in the majors.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Jakob Marsee has put up a .291 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 19th percentile.
CHC
@
WAS
Wed, Aug 12 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This is a huge outlier price at Polymarket. I hit this winner last night at +325, and tonight’s matchup is just as good, with a fair price of +260. Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a 111-mph missile last night and has moved to -125 as the NL MVP betting favorite. He saw Jake Irvin last night but can do some damage against the Nationals and rookie left-hander Jackson Kent, who is making his first MLB start. The southpaw started the year at Double-A and is getting the promotion after Zack Littell was finally designated for assignment. Kent was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher at Triple-A this year but also allowed eight home runs over 63-plus innings. He’s tough on lefties from an AVG perspective, but left-handed hitters have taken him deep at a similar rate to righties. Nothing cute here—just backing a great bat in a great spot at a great price.
Total Bases
Carson Kelly o1.5 Total Bases (+139)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for long-balls.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.. Carson Kelly will hold the platoon advantage over Jackson Kent in today's game.. By putting up a .340 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Carson Kelly has performed in the 77th percentile for offensive ability.
SEA
@
NYY
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:05 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-105)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Mariners are toothless against righties, posting a .274 wOBA (28th) and 43.1 GB% (24th) over the last 30 days.
The Yankees have hit for more power but rank dead last with a .194 batting average over the same span.
I make the total 7.8 and would bet to -125.
Moneyline
NYY (-130)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Will Warren has been incredibly unlucky the past month, with a strong 2.58 xFIP and 48.9% ground ball rate wiped out by an unsustainably high .389 BABIP and nearly 40% of baserunners scoring.
Bryce Miller owns a 5.24 xFIP over the same time while posting a 50% fly ball rate and allowing well over two homers per nine.
Both offenses are struggling, so I want to be on the side of the better pitching.
Back New York to -140.
BOS
@
TOR
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:07 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-126)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
The Blue Jays have really struggled against Ranger Suarez, with Toronto hitters posting a lifetime .443 OPS across 60 at-bats. While Jose Soriano’s stuff can be electric, his control remains a concern, as he ranks in the 17th percentile in walk rate at Baseball Savant. I'm siding with Boston on the road.
Total Bases
Andruw Monasterio o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.34
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 6th-best venue in the league for right-handed home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.. Extreme flyball bats like Andruw Monasterio usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.. Andruw Monasterio has recorded a .298 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
NYM
@
ATL
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+158)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 86°.. Austin Riley will have the handedness advantage against Zach Thornton today.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 6th-best hitter in the game.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 86°.
CIN
@
CHW
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Hector Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+152)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humidity on the schedule today at 87%.. Hector Rodriguez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today's matchup... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Sam Antonacci o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Antonacci in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Samuel Antonacci is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humidity on the schedule today at 81%.. Batting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Samuel Antonacci will have an advantage in today's game.
TEX
@
LAA
Wed, Aug 12 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Corey Seager projects as the 13th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. In Major League Baseball, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over George Klassen today.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.. Over the past two weeks, Wyatt Langford's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph in recent games.
KC
@
LAD
Wed, Aug 12 • 10:10 PM ET
Total
o9.5 (+120)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Daniel Lynch is unlikely to pitch more than a few innings, and the Royals’ bullpen ranks dead last in HR/9.
The Los Angeles Dodgers sit second in OPS this season, and conditions are expected to provide a 14% boost to home runs.
While Eric Lauer has pitched better for LA, he has still conceded 2.15 HR/9.
Back to -120.
Total Home Runs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+276)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Shohei Ohtani for a homer at +250 or better is usually a price point for me, but it’s not something we see daily, with his average HR price closer to two dollars. I’m a Pete Crow-Armstrong guy all the way for NL MVP right now, but I’m willing to back Ohtani at this price against the Royals and their bullpen. Lefty Daniel Lynch is getting the start, which is why the price is higher with the lefty-on-lefty matchup. However, Lynch threw just 35 pitches and recorded five outs in his last turn, his first start of the season, before handing things over to the bullpen. Kansas City currently has no left-handed options in its bullpen, which sets up well for Ohtani later in the game. Since 2024, 71% of Ohtani’s home runs have come against right-handed pitching, so the matchup gets considerably better once the Royals go to their right-handed relievers. THE BAT has the fair price all the way down to +220.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
