Two small-ball teams, one trip to the World Series on the line, and plenty of intriguing opportunities in my Guardians vs. Rays home run predictions as the two teams square off in Game 2 of the ALCS.
With runs expected to come at a premium, my Guardians vs. Rays predictions are targeting a few big bats capable of changing the game with one swing.
Tap into my MLB picks for today as we look to stay hot throughout the postseason.
Best Guardians vs Rays home run picks
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Guardians home run pick: Jose Ramirez
I'm going back to the well with Jose Ramirez, who's had Freddy Peralta's number over the course of his career. Owning a .314 xBA and .471 xSLG across nine plate appearances, Ramirez is a strong pick to go yard in this spot.
Peralta has also had issues suppressing the long ball during the season; with a 37.2% hard-hit rate, Ramirez might be able to capitalize on a mistake tonight. After a 3-for-5 night, the Guardians' star is as locked in as he's ever been at the plate. Now is the best time to take advantage.
Rays home run pick: Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz has logged a hit in every single game in the postseason but has yet to hit a homer. Tonight is as good a night as any to get his first against Parker Messick.
He simply sees the ball well out of his hand, rocking a .357 xBA and .389 xSLG against the young right-hander, who's struggled in the postseason.
Messick has yet to work deeper than 4 1/3 innings in October with his control issues, which could come back to bite him if he leaves a mistake over the heart of the plate.
It's time for Diaz to show off some of his power tonight. And at 15%, we'll take that type of value.
Long-shot home run pick: Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter has been swinging a red-hot bat this postseason, boasting a .907 OPS in October while recording at least one hit in five of six playoff games. He's also coming off his best performance of the postseason, going 3-for-4 with a double and a home run against a tough Rays pitching staff.
With the way he's seeing the ball right now, there's plenty of reason to believe he can keep the momentum rolling as a long-shot play.
Guardians vs Rays home run combo
Tonight we're rocking with the hot hand or getting ahead of a potential breakout candidate. Ramirez, Diaz, and DeLauter are all capable of breaking a game wide open, and with both pitchers having their fair share of issues limiting the long ball, I'll take my chances on this lotto play.
It helps that Tropicana Field has coughed up the ninth-most homers in baseball during the regular season. Let's see some volume tonight.
- HR picks: 2-5, +1.09 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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