MLB Picks

The Under has hit in three straight meetings, and the pitching matchup is solid. Sanchez is electric, and he clearly feeds off the Citizens Bank Park atmosphere. Although Webb has given up some runs lately, he’s still a guy who gives the Giants a respectable five or six innings each start. In fact, he’s gone at least six innings in each of his previous four starts.

I have to get a piece of the Baltimore Orioles offense in an elite hitting matchup. Lance McCullers Jr. is a top fade — his Blast Contact numbers are poor, his HR/FB rate sits near the bottom of the league, and he’s issued 12 walks over his last 18 innings while allowing 15 runs across his last three starts. He’s also starting Game 1 of a doubleheader and may be forced to eat innings. The wind is blowing out to right field, and McCullers has given up most of his home runs this year to left-handed bats. Samuel Basallo comes at a big price for a hitter producing extra-base damage, with two doubles and two home runs over his last three games. This projects as the best +EV home-run play on the slate, per Covers, with a fair price around +550. There should be runs in this game.

With Colorado sporting a 22nd-ranked wOBA and striking out at the second-highest clip against lefties, this is a solid bounce-back opportunity for Abbott. There’s no sugarcoating his poor start, but he’s set to improve on his unsustainable .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate, and his 8.3 K/9 and 22.2 K% across his first 75 career starts are well above his respective 5.97 and 14.3% marks to start 2026. Simply put, the Reds lefty has sunnier times ahead.

 Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card. Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs. Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.

Neither pitcher is expected to be lights out, but a high-scoring game seems unlikely. The Under has hit in five of the last six meetings, with both offenses struggling. Kansas City averages 4.1 runs (23rd), while the Athletics sit at 4.2 (19th). Both teams also have trouble against lefties, hitting just .229 and .217, respectively.

It’s not getting more square than this, but Yordan Alvarez at +310 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270. Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in most standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Chris Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career. Winds are blowing out, though there is some rain risk that could ruin this great spot. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed two runs or fewer in five of six starts, including against the Giants in early April. He has been flat-out dominant at home, allowing two or fewer in 18 consecutive starts. He is well-positioned to neuter a Giants offense that ranks dead last in runs, homers, and stolen bases.