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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+157 
|
o8.0 -105 
|
+1.5 -105
|
|
4.86 |
-180 
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +120
|
Athletics
- are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 9-0 in Martinezs last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
o1.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.58 |
-215 
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 -130
|
|
4.05 |
+190 
|
u8.5 -115 
|
+1.5 +118
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
o1.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.80 |
-130
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.45 |
+115
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -155 
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 9-0 in Jones' last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.30 |
-185
|
o8.5 -130
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
4.39 |
+165
|
u9.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.57 |
+100
|
o8.5 -134 
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
5.34 |
-110
|
u9.5 -145
|
+1.5 -178
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.80 |
+140
|
o7.5 -103
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.43 |
-155
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +140
|
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
-105
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.00 |
-106
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -180
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 home starts.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
+141
|
o8.0 -167
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
4.90 |
-160
|
u9.0 -115
|
-2.5 +200
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.31 |
-165
|
o10.0 -175
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.47 |
+145
|
u11.0 -110
|
+1.5 -104
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rockies last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
-135
|
o7.0 -180
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.25 |
+120
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -140
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
+118
|
o8.0 -175
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
5.33 |
-134
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.44 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.96 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.58 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.72 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Singers last 8 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-1 in Singers last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
+235
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 +102
|
|
|
4.81 |
-270
|
u7.5 +102
|
-1.5 -114
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in Rasmussens last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts on fieldturf.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7.02 |
-158
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
|
5.46 |
+144
|
u11.5 -138
|
+1.5 -110
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 5-0-1 in Gordons last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.99 |
+121
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
|
5.06 |
-140
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in McLeans last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+112
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.50 |
-126
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +164
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 on grass.
- Over is 41-12 in White Sox last 53 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.22 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rangers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.88 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a road underdog.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Nick Madrigal u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nick Madrigal is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage over Brady Basso in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+434)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Tucker has quietly crushed the fastball-sweeper combination from lefties.
He’s hitting .381 with a .317 ISO and 16.3% barrel rate – high-end numbers you see from the elite of the elite.
When Andrew Abbott departs, Tucker will face a bullpen that has allowed home runs at the fifth highest rate this season.
Total
o8.5 (+100)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the Over to 52%.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will need to do the heavy lifting, which should not be a problem against Andrew Abbott.
Abbott’s season has gone completely in the tank over the last couple of months. He is sporting a 6.39 xERA and 7.71 ERA spanning eight starts since Aug. 1.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-109)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Washington is in trouble tonight. In his last outing, rookie Jared Simpson allowed three ERs without recording an out, and now opens for a bullpen sporting a disgraceful 8.39 ERA and MLB’s worst FIP over the last two weeks. Zack Wheeler has surrendered just three total ERs across his last three starts, and faces a Nationals offense sitting at 28th in OPS against righties over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 81°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, CJ Abrams will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Francisco Lindor o0.5 Total Home Runs (+381)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Francisco Lindor's power has picked up considerably, with three homers across his last six games and a .409 ISO during that stretch. He's also generating plenty of fly balls and hard contact, while Bassitt has allowed 1.53 HR/9 on the road. Lindor has an appealing profile at this number.
Total
o8.5 (-123)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 57%. Both offenses are producing right now, with the Mets posting a 120 wRC+ over the last week. Neither starter has been particularly dominant this season, while New York's shaky bullpen adds another path to late runs. Baltimore's relievers aren't a concern, but 8.5 still looks reachable.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Walks Allowed
JR Ritchie o2.5 Walks Allowed (+141)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
JR Ritchie has struggled to find the zone lately, making his walks market worth targeting against the Cubs. The right-hander owns a 15.63% walk rate over his last five starts and a 14% mark on the season. That number jumps to 23.3% against the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced, and Chicago is expected to roll out five lefties tonight. The Cubs also own baseball’s highest walk rate at home this season and have maintained an 11% walk rate over their last 12 games, third-best in baseball. Three walks is a lot, but at +141, this is a fun sweat.
Total Home Runs
Ian Happ o0.5 Total Home Runs (+650)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With Braves starter JR Ritchie allowing a monster 47.2% hard-hit rate and .234 ISO to left-handed hitters across his eight starts, I’m eyeing Cubbies veteran Ian Happ to cash in on statistical correction. Happ has gone 18 games without a homer despite a respectable 33.3% squared-up contact rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate, so with a high-end .213 ISO against righties for the year, the matchup checks out.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Burger o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Burger has hit 12 of his 26 homers against lefties with a monster .304 ISO, and Boston starter Jake Bennett has served up a healthy .222 ISO and 17.7% blast-contact rate to right-handed batters across his past 10 starts.
Total
o7.5 (-128)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This total is too low, and I’d recommend the Over 7.5 to 57%. Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, the Rangers are seventh in overall wOBA, second in ISO and 12th in xwOBA over the past 30 days. Similarly, Boston ranks fifth in wOBA against lefties for the year, and both starters have been more serviceable than stellar down the stretch. Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore sports a 4.61 ERA (4.12 xERA and 4.33 xFIP) across his past 11 starts, and Red Sox southpaw Jake Bennett checks in with a 4.55 ERA (4.00 xERA and 3.95 xFIP) through his past 10 outings.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Michael Massey u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 21st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. This year, Michael Massey has been pulled from the game early in 20% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in the majors for run-scoring.. In the majors, the 3rd-highest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Salvador Perez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph figure.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .322, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .040 gap between that figure and his actual .282 wOBA.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+301)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I'm heading to Coors to take Fernando Tatis to go yard, and there is room here with a fair probability of 29.4%. The projections are a little low on him, as he's priced as the third-most probable Padre to go deep, but he has already gone deep in each game of this series and might have his best matchup today. Mason Adams is the biggest pitcher fade of the day. In the second half of the season, he has the 20th-worst barrel rate and fourth-worst HR/FB rate among all MLB starters. He's given up five dingers in 18 innings, with only 4+ of those innings coming at Coors, where he has allowed two homers. He's also a reverse-splits pitcher and gets hit harder by right-handed bats. Only Pete Crow-Armstrong has more homers than Tatis in the second half, and Tatis is slugging at a Top-10 rate since the break.
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Cole Carrigg will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Cole Carrigg has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 90-mph.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total Home Runs (+381)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Mike Trout already has a homer to his name against Kirby, and with the righty's massive struggles this season, he's in a good spot to go yard one more time. Trout's having a strong September, as well, owning a .795 OPS this month. Expect the future Hall of Famer to sit on a mistake fastball from Kirby, a pitch he's hit 14 of his 21 homers against this season.
Total
o7.5 (-119)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
The Over is hitting at a 100% clip over Kirby's last five road starts, and it likely won't change today. The right-hander has given up 12 earned runs across his last three outings (17 2/3 innings pitched), and while I believe in Yusei Kikuchi, the Mariners will do just enough offensively to get us over the line. The Angels' lefty owns a 44.6% hard-hit rate - the highest of his career. Even the Mariners' lackluster offense should be able to get to him. Let's see some runs tonight.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-115)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Marlins righty Ryan Gusto has serious statistical correction ahead. His 3.86 ERA through his past nine starts is miles below his 5.25 xERA and 4.56 xFIP, and Arizona ranks sixth in squared-up contact rate against righties in the second half. Additionally, Diamondback righty Merrill Kelly has allowed the third-highest xwOBA in baseball, so Miami is also set to have success at the dish considering the Marlins rank seventh in wOBA and 12th in xwOBA in September.
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+457)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Carroll has hit 15 of his 21 home runs against righties with a rock-solid .223 ISO, and this matchup checks out, too. Miami starter Ryan Gusto’s home runs per nine innings jumps from 0.59 at home to 1.67 on the road, and he’s also served up a massive 47.2% hard-hit rate and 37.6% squared-up contact rate to left-handed hitters across his 16 starts.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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