MLB Picks

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Tropicana Field projects as the #4 field in baseball for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. PNC Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Because of Patrick Sandoval's large platoon split, Esmerlyn Valdez will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for batters.. Nolan Arenado's launch angle recently (27.7° over the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 18.9° seasonal angle.

Dylan Cease has the highest strikeout percentage of his career (36%), and is going up against Ryan Weathers, a lefty the Blue Jays have owned (13-for-37, four homers) over the last couple of seasons. Let's back them to do just that this afternoon.

JJ Bleday is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, JJ Bleday will have an edge today.

Jackson Merrill has hit .347 with a .429 ISO and impressive 22.5% barrel rate over the last 20 games. That has translated to five homers and 25 balls hit at least 300 feet, both of which lead the team.

Tanner Bibee sits in the 18th percentile in xSLG against left-handed hitters, and has allowed 11 more homers than to righties.

Bet to +385.

Jared Young is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. This year, Jared Young has been pinch hit for in 25% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Citi Field grades out as the #27 stadium in the game for overall LHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among every team playing today.

Sean Burke has been a strikeout machine over his last five outings, but he has also faced several extremely strikeout-heavy lineups during that stretch. This is a much tougher matchup against a disciplined Tigers lineup that has been hovering around a 20% strikeout rate over its last 12 games. Detroit also owns a sub-80% contact rate, 9.3% swinging-strike rate and 26.3% chase rate during that span. Against right-handed pitching over their last 60 plate appearances, only three Tigers hitters have a strikeout rate above 25%, while five are at 20% or lower. At plus money, the under offers a ton of value.

Dean Kremer enters Sunday with the second-worst rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset and draws a nightmare matchup against a fully elite-rated Phillies lineup. Philadelphia has been red-hot over its last 12 games, posting a 115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and .762 OPS. Kremer has been especially vulnerable against left-handed hitters, sporting a 6.92 ERA, 5.85 FIP, and 13.6% walk rate over his last 60 lefties faced. Those hitters have also posted a .335 xBA, .595 xSLG, and .225 ISO. With four of Philadelphia's five elite-rated bats hitting from the left side, this is a strong spot to back the Phillies.

The Cardinals look like a sneaky value play Sunday afternoon against the Cubs. Edward Cabrera is making his return from the injured list, but he struggled mightily before landing there, posting a 7.59 ERA and allowing a 50% hard-hit rate over his final five outings. Meanwhile, Cardinals right-hander Hunter Dobbins has been extremely serviceable, carrying a 3.25 ERA, 2.77 xERA and 1.23 WHIP while limiting hard contact and barrels. With Cabrera returning after an extended absence and struggling before his injury, the easy fade is the Cardinals after their big offensive showing Saturday. Instead, the Cardinals look pretty delectable in this matchup Sunday afternoon.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Mickey Moniak is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Blade Tidwell throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an edge in today's game.. Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for bats.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

Both starting pitchers are fantastic: Tarik Skubal (121 Pitching+) has limited this lineup to a .483 OPS in prior meetings, while Logan Henderson has a 2.69 xERA and 109 Pitching+. These lineups have been "going through it", ranking bottom 10 in wRC+ this month. Bullpen-wise, Milwaukee has a sub-2.00 ERA in August, whereas all of L.A.'s options are well-rested and available.

Houston owns an .859 OPS against right-handed pitching at home over the last 30 days, the best mark in MLB over that span.

Woo has allowed a 43.5% hard-hit rate, ranking in the 13th percentile, while his four-seamer has been hit hard 44.3% of the time. Hunter Brown provides the opposite matchup, holding opponents to an 85.7-mph average exit velocity and 36.2% hard-hit rate. I'd play to -140.

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.