MLB Picks

After finishing fourth in the AL MVP race in 2024, Gunnar Henderson had a bit of a down year in 2025. However, he's hitting the ball well again and has a great matchup today. Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile in overall offensive talent according to THE BAT X, and he's slugging .691 over the last two weeks. He'll have the platoon advantage at home against Arizona starter Merril Kelly and there's a 13 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Kelly is making his season debut after dealing with a back ailment and he logged a 4.16 xERA in 32 starts last year. The D-Backs have one of the worst bullpens in the majors behind him.

Pete Alonso crushed a home run on Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and a fan in a Polar Bear costume caught it—if that’s not a sign to run it back on Tuesday, I don’t know what is. Alonso is listed at +427 to hit a home run, but I make the fair price closer to +350. The weather at Camden Yards is also favorable, with the wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph and temperatures expected to be in the high 80s—ideal conditions for power hitting. If you’re into BvP, you’ll also like that Alonso has three home runs in 19 career at-bats against Merrill Kelly.

Both offenses have middling numbers this season but combined for 20 runs last night. These teams were sixth and eighth in the majors in scoring last year and they boast dangerous lineups on paper, so expect them to find their groove eventually. The Cubs big bats should get to Phillies starter Aaron Nola who had an ugly 6.01 ERA last season. That said, I also don't have much faith in Colin Rea who will serve as Chicago's bulk reliever after rookie Riley Martin opens. Rea was in the 25th percentile in xERA (4.55), xBA (.261), and barrel rate (10.3%) last year.

Riley Martin will be the Cubs opener today with Colin Rea serving as bulk reliever. Martin has looked sharp as a reliever while Rea has a 3.18 ERA this year and pitched to a 3.95 ERA in 159 2/3 frames last year. The Phillies are giving the pill to Aaron Nola who had an ugly 6.01 ERA last season. The veteran gives up too much hard contact and is susceptible to the long ball. opponents are slugging .471 against him since the start of last season. Meanwhile, Martin and Rea are both ground ball pitchers. That could make the difference with both teams having pop in their lineup. Take the visitors at plus money.

Let's keep on keeping on with the Tigers here. They are coming off a sweep of the Marlins and now get to face Cole Ragans, who is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA. Detroit will have the edge on the bump with Framber Valdez, and with the offense finally clicking, a short home favorite seems the right play. 

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Wenceel Perez will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Cole Ragans in this game.. In today's game, Wenceel Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.8% rate (81st percentile).

Cincinnati righty Brady Singer has been awful this season, pitching to a 7.71 ERA through three starts. That said, the veteran had a 3.96 FIP in 64 starts over the last two years so expect positive regression. Especially since he faces a San Fran lineup that is 29th in the majors in runs per game (3.19) and 28th in OBP (.288). The Giants will have southpaw Robbie Ray and his 2.08 ERA on the mound. The veteran has great swing-and-miss stuff and Cincinnati ranks 28th in runs per game (3.38) and 29th in OPA (.623).

When estimating his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 field in the game for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. This matchup is projected to have the 8th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Elly De La Cruz has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

When I go square, I want all the checkmarks, and I’m getting them in this Pittsburgh Pirates spot. Oneil Cruz is a Top-5 hitter in baseball in swing speed and leads all batters in Blast Contact%, a stat that combines fast swings with barrels. Swing hard and square it up — simple. Cruz gets a heavenly matchup vs. Miles Mikolas, who might be looking for a new job soon. Mikolas has been getting lit up, allowing 19 runs in just over 12 innings with five home runs surrendered. He’s unlikely to go deep, and Pittsburgh should also get cracks at a taxed Washington Nationals bullpen after hanging 16 runs on them last night. There might be four arms unavailable today from that Washington pen. Elite form, double-digit winds blowing out, a great matchup, and a depleted bullpen all point to upside. I’m willing to go a bit shorter here at +330 and would still play it down to +300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP ability.. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among every team in action today.

Ryan Weathers has a 2.81 ERA through three starts but his 5.12 xERA and .299 xBA suggest he's been very lucky. Tonight the Yankees southpaw faces an Angels lineup that ranks seventh in the majors in OPS against southpaws (.726). But the main reason to play the YRFI prop in this game is because New York's loaded lineup faces Halos lefty Reid Detmers (4.60 ERA through three starts). The Yankees have been a bit inconsistent at the dish this year but the analytics suggest positive regression. They are first in the majors in barrel rate, third in hard-hit rate, and second in xwOBAcon (.403).

Reid Detmers 2.53 xERA ranks in the Top 15% of baseball through three starts, and that’s just a massive gap compared to Yankees hurler Ryan Weathers' 5.12 xERA (Bottom 25th percentile). This is effectively the difference between a top-third starter and a guy who is a bridge to the rest of the rotation being healthy. 

Drake Baldwin won the NL Rookie of the Year Award last year, and he's been even better this season. Baldwin ranks in the 95th percentile in xSLG (.586) and the 88th percentile in barrel rate. He leads the Braves with 17 RBI, and he has driven in a run in nine of his last 14 games. He'll have the platoon advantage at home against Marlins righty Max Meyer tonight. Meyer has a 3.68 ERA though three starts but his xERA is significantly wworse at 5.42. Meyer had a 4.73 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in 12 starts last year and he was particularly bad on the road. 

In today's matchup, Matt Olson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.2% rate (75th percentile).. Matt Olson has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .275 rate is considerably higher than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Sonny Gray has looked sharp in two of three starts this year. That said, the  Boston hurler had a 4.28 ERA last season with poor numbers in the first inning (4.50 ERA, .256 OBA). Gray's strikeout rate has plummeted to just 15.2% and Minnesota is red-hot at the dish, posting an OPS of .839 over the last week. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have plated 6+ runs in three straight games. They face 24-year-old Mick Abel who has failed to play up to his vast potential. He had a 6.23 ERA last year and his xERA is at 7.17 this year.

The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Target Field.. The league's 5th-highest average fence height can be found at Target Field.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.. Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate today).

Varsho has handled fastballs extremely well to begin the season, and Misiorowski has shown a tendency to give up hard contact when he utilizes the heater. That could set up the Jays outfielder for his third home run in four games.

Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski sits around 98 mph on his four-seamer, which he uses at a 62% rate. Despite the early-season struggles, the Toronto Blue Jays have fared well against the fastball and should match up well against the youngster. Daulton Varsho leads the Blue Jays in hits against the four-seamer with a .365 average and a 60% hard-hit rate. Varsho has recorded a knock in four straight games while batting .412 over that span.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

When assessing his home run skill, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Noah Schultz throws from, Junior Caminero will have an edge today.

Let’s call it what it is—this price is simply too good to pass up on one of the premier hitters in MLB, especially in a ballpark that favors power given Tuesday’s weather forecast. José Ramírez is listed at +551 to hit a home run on Tuesday, but I make it closer to +435, which creates a clear edge and makes this a bet worth attacking. He also looked comfortable at the plate in this park on Monday, going 2-for-4 with a walk—an encouraging sign that he’s seeing the ball well. On the mound, Michael McGreevy may be off to a solid start, but his underlying splits are a concern. Left-handed hitters tagged him for a .318 average with nine home runs in just 173 at-bats last season, which sets up well for Ramírez in this matchup.

McGreevy's underlying metrics suggest Cleveland will score, while Cantillo's command issues against a right-handed heavy lineup and gusty winds blowing out mean a few free passes could turn into a run explosion in a hurry. Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine. The Cardinals' pen can't miss bats. Play the Over. 

 

The Rockies are checking some home run boxes in tonight’s matchup with the Astros. Houston is dealing with injuries to its rotation, which brings in Triple-A lefty Colton Gordon. That also opens the door to a vulnerable bullpen, as the Astros are one of just two teams with a HR/9 north of 2.00. Goodman is the target in this solid indoor matchup. He’s one of the few hitters with familiarity against Gordon and has already taken him deep in just two plate appearances. He also hits lefties much better. Goodman brings legit power metrics, with one of the fastest swings in baseball at 79 mph, ranking 19th this season. The fair price sits in the +340 to +350 range, giving this +410 number clear value.

After an injury-plagued campaign in 2025, Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing like an MVP candidate once again. He's fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.714) and his expected slugging percentage is even higher at an incredible .821. He'll have the platoon advantage against struggling Rockies starter Michael Lorenzon tonight. Lorenzon has an ugly 6.09 xERA through three starts and is in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile in xBA (.323). Alvarez will also benefit from the 15 mph blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.

The Mariners and Padres each saw their offenses wake up over the weekend. Seattle averaged 7.25 runs per game in their four-game sweep of the Houston Astros, while the Padres put up an average of 7.00 runs in their sweep of the Colorado Rockies. None of that changes the fact that there’s a strong pitching matchup on tap tonight, but this total won’t be easy to get Under. In particular, San Diego comes in having played to a total of 7+ runs in six straight games. With both lineups coming into tonight’s game hitting well, I’m taking the Over.

Bryan Woo has a 2.84 ERA since the start of the 2024 season, which a minuscule WHIP of 0.908 in that span. He’s struck out 17 batters while allowing just three earned runs on 10 hits over his first 18 innings of work this season. As good as Michael King (1-1, 3.24 ERA) has been for the San Diego Padres, I like the Seattle Mariners to win behind Woo.

This matchup features two left-handed starters against lineups that have been awful vs southpaws, ranking 26th and 27th in OPS. MacKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.45 ERA) and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA. Jeffrey Springs has been even better, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, highlighted by a one-hit gem over seven innings at Yankee Stadium his last time out. Oakland is always an Under candidate as they've already scored one run or fewer six times, including each of their last two.

 

Sam Haggerty is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. 23% of the time that Sam Haggerty has started against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF fences in the league.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sam Haggerty in today's game.

Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium is easily the marquee matchup of the night, and I’m backing the Mets in what could very well be an NLCS preview. The Mets are listed at +181 on Pinnacle, but I make them closer to +130, so there’s clear value at this price. While the Dodgers lineup—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy—typically thrives against right-handed pitching, that edge diminishes against elite arms. McLean fits that profile with his high-end stuff and impressive spin rates. He has the ability to neutralize left-handed power by burying back-foot sliders and mixing in his curveball to keep hitters off balance, which should help limit hard contact and suppress their power upside.

A team with Nolan McLean as their starting pitcher shouldn’t be priced at +186. 

The 24-year-old has a 2.23 ERA across 11 starts in the Big Leagues and has flashed elite stuff this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity. 

The offense could reasonably plate several runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to ramp up to “elite mode” with a pedestrian 3.62 xERA and 20.9% K rate in three starts.