The dingers were finally flying yesterday, and I hit a monster +1040 homer to help my crawl out of the early-season basement.
The weather is turning, and the balls are flying. It's time to hit the MLB player props and back the bats on Dinger Tuesday.
I'm leaning on some familiar names today, but at prices I like in these settings and matchups.
Very few people are hitting the ball on the screws with a harder swing than Oneil Cruz, Pete Alonso has found his power and is the bat to back in Baltimore today, and Hunter Goodman and the Rockies could be trotting around the bags tonight vs. Houston's lousy pitching.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, April 14.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Oneil Cruz |
+330 |
 Pete Alonso |
+390 |
 Hunter Goodman |
+410 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +10395 |
Oneil Cruz (+330)
When I go square, I want all the checkmarks, and I’m getting them in this Pittsburgh Pirates spot.
Oneil Cruz is a Top-5 hitter in baseball in swing speed and leads all batters in Blast Contact%, a stat that combines fast swings with barrels. Swing hard and square it up — simple.
Cruz gets a heavenly matchup vs. Miles Mikolas, who might be looking for a new job soon. Mikolas has been getting lit up, allowing 19 runs in just over 12 innings with five home runs surrendered.
He’s unlikely to go deep, and Pittsburgh should also get cracks at a taxed Nationals bullpen after hanging 16 runs on them last night. There might be four arms unavailable today from that Washington pen.
Elite form, double-digit winds blowing out, a great matchup, and a depleted bullpen all point to upside. I’m willing to go a bit shorter here at +330 and would still play it down to +300.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Nationals.TV
Pete Alonso (+390)
There were seven homers hit at Camden Yards yesterday, with one coming off the bat of Pete Alonso, who is +EV for a dinger today at +390 with a fair price around +340, per THE BAT.
It’s another great setting with double-digit winds blowing out and Merrill Kelly making his first start of the season before handing it over to a bullpen that got tagged for seven runs over just nine outs yesterday.
Alonso is the bat to target in this lineup, boasting the best Blast Contact% numbers in the clubhouse — roughly double that of Gunnar Henderson.
The final piece is familiarity. Alonso has seen Kelly 19 times, which leans in the hitter’s favor, and the Polar Bear has gone deep three times in those matchups.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Dbacks.TV
Hunter Goodman (+410)
The Colorado Rockies are checking some home run boxes in tonight’s matchup with the Houston Astros. Houston is dealing with injuries to its rotation, which brings in Triple-A lefty Colton Gordon.
That also opens the door to a vulnerable bullpen, as the Astros are one of just two teams with a HR/9 north of 2.00.
Hunter Goodman is the target in this solid indoor matchup. He’s one of the few hitters with familiarity against Gordon and has already taken him deep in just two plate appearances. He also hits lefties much better.
Goodman brings legit power metrics, with one of the fastest swings in baseball at 79 mph, ranking 19th this season. The fair price sits in the +340 to +350 range, giving this +410 number clear value.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SCHN
- HR picks: 3-24, -1.1 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Oneil Cruz |
Bet Now +10395 |
| Pete Alonso |
|
| Hunter Goodman |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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