MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Manzardo in the 13th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. In today's game, Kyle Manzardo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (84th percentile).. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.. There has been a significant decline in Kyle Manzardo's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 16.5° this season.

Although the Brewers lineup is dangerous, Dustin May has quietly been more effective lately, allowing more than three earned runs only once in his last eight outings. Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been dominant, while St. Louis continues to struggle offensively. With six of the last seven meetings hitting the Under, another low-scoring game is likely.

Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate. Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters. Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics. His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.

When assessing his home run talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Among all parks, Oracle Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Mike Soroka today.

There’s never really been a bad time this season to back the Tampa Bay Rays, but Wednesday presents an even better spot than usual. I price the Rays closer to -145 favorites against the Baltimore Orioles, yet they’re only trading around -108. Most of the power at the top of Baltimore’s lineup comes from right-handed bats like Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, and Tyler O'Neill against Rays left-hander Steven Matz. While that may appear to give the Orioles a platoon advantage, Matz is a veteran lefty who relies on a changeup and a sinking fastball at the bottom of the zone—pitches specifically designed to neutralize the pull-side power of right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is expected to roll out seven left-handed bats against right-hander Trey Gibson, and those hitters are attacking the more favorable dimensions of Oriole Park at Camden Yards since the left-field wall adjustments.

Vaughn Grissom's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vaughn Grissom is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Cracking 3 HRs in the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe has been on fire lately.

Although Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias each pitched an inning yesterday for Atlanta, Monday was an off-day for the Braves, which should allow the Braves to run it back with their high-leverage bullpen arms tonight. Meanwhile, both Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock are coming off multiple days of rest for the BoSox. Both bullpens rank Top 5 in reliever ERA, and I expect the offense to dry up for the most part after the first five innings. These teams are a combined 48-55 to the Over/Under this season, and considering the floundering Red Sox are already without Roman Anthony, I'm leaning toward the Under.

The projections love the Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup. He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen. Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he leads the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage. He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

Kansas City does not strikeout much against righties, but Cole’s current profile is less about pure strikeouts and more about limiting damage. That directly attacks Kansas City’s issue: the Royals have a team barrel rate of just 8%. This is an angle we've hit on throughout the series. The Royals' path to scoring is stringing together multiple hits, and the quality of pitchers that New York has thrown out haven't allowed that to happen. This isn’t a huge edge, though, and I’d play to -130.

In addition to the White Sox ranking fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May, the Twins have also won seven of their past nine games with a solid .325 wOBA and an average of 4.4 runs per game. So, with both teams also trending to the Over, I’m anticipating both clubs chipping in more than enough to send this total Over the number.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Jake Burger will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Jake Burger has been hot of late, notching 4 long-balls in the last 14 days.