MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Rafaela has touched home plate and recorded at least a hit in five consecutive games (14 total HRR). He sports a team-best 25 doubles and is on pace for career-best slashes. He also has an XBH and an RBI in three of his last five as he and the Sox look for a franchise record-tying 15th straight win.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Willy Adames is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Over the last 7 days, Willy Adames's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 28.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. American Family Field profiles as the #9 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. Andrew Vaughn hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Gabriel Hughes throws from, Daylen Lile will have an edge in today's game.

In MLB, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for homers.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 85°.. Given Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Colt Emerson will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Soderstrom will have an advantage in today's game.. Tyler Soderstrom is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Over the last 14 days, Tyler Soderstrom has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.6% to 18.8%.

Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Mike Trout has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Trout.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Byron Buxton is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Progressive Field profiles as the #2 venue in the league for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.. Bryson Stott has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage today.. In the past week's worth of games, Bryson Stott's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 16.7%.

I’m backing the Pittsburgh Pirates because this price is too long for a game my projection makes close to a coin flip. I’d play it to +110. Bubba Chandler’s command is uncomfortable, but his top-30 percentile barrel rate allowed should matter against a homer-dependent New York Yankees lineup. The gap is not wide enough to justify this moneyline. I have faded Will Warren plenty this season. He is not a bad pitcher, but the market keeps overvaluing him. His xERA sits near 5, and his below-average barrel profile meets a Pirates lineup with the eighth-highest barrel rate in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Hunter Feduccia is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.. Hunter Feduccia has been pulled from the game early 48% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. The #8 venue in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Wyatt Langford will hold the platoon advantage against Anthony Kay in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Kay has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Jeremy Pena pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. In the past two weeks, Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. The 7th-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Wrigley Field.. Dansby Swanson will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dansby Swanson's true offensive skill to be a .342, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 gap between that figure and his actual .304 wOBA.. Power-wise, Dansby Swanson is ranked in the 75th percentile, having paced 26.1 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.