MLB Picks

I’m hitting the early game and getting back on the Over with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field at PNC Park. Last night turned into a 14-run game, and Hunter Goodman wasn’t even in the starting lineup. Both bullpens have been more than generous over the last two weeks, ranking among the bottom four teams in ERA. Mason Montgomery gets the ball as Pittsburgh’s opener, and then it’ll be time for the Colorado Rockies to take swings at Carmen Mlodzinski, who has allowed 17 runs over his last 19-plus innings. I like the Rockies, but I like runs more.

The drought ends today for Fernando Tatis Jr., who somehow has yet to go deep this year. He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to this point. His xwOBA ranks second on the team despite slugging just .294. He also owns the fastest bat speed on the roster, ranks inside the Top 50 in baseball in that metric, and sits 25th in BlastContact%. Even his attack angle is in a great spot. It’s a real head-scratcher, and it ends today against lefty Kyle Harrison, whom he’s taken deep over nine career at-bats while hitting .444. Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher who might be pitching above expectations this season and profiles as a strong target today for a homerless Tatis, who feels more than due with the underlying metrics backing it up.

The Minnesota Twins are trading around -120 on Thursday, and that’s a number we can hit as I price the Twins closer to -145 favorites against the Miami Marlins. Connor Prielipp is a swing-and-miss left-hander who has shown strikeout stuff throughout his time in the minors, and that has continued through his first four major league starts, where he’s posted a 9.95 K/9. The Marlins have improved offensively, but they still lack the type of power bats that can consistently punish mistakes over the heart of the plate. Instead, Miami often needs to string together multiple hits to generate runs, and that becomes a major problem against a lefty capable of piling up strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Twins should be able to roll out a lineup with only one left-handed bat—Matt Wallner—against left-hander Braxton Garrett, giving Minnesota a favorable platoon setup throughout most of the order.

Astros starter Mike Burrows has found a groove across his past three starts with a 2.50 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a 30.6% hard-hit rate, and Mariners righty Luis Castillo has screaming statistical correction ahead of his unsustainable .364 BABIP and 59.0% strand rate. Add the potential for both teams to rest regulars in this afternoon series finale, and I’m anticipating both starters to put enough zeros on the scoreboard to keep this total Under the number Thursday.

The Red Sox have been one of the better teams in the league against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in OPS versus southpaws over the past month. That’s notable with Jesús Luzardo on the mound, as he’s already allowed five or more earned runs in four starts this season. Ranger Suárez has also been dominant lately, giving up zero earned runs in four of his last five starts, while the Phillies sit dead last in road OPS.

Chris Sale continues to dominate hitters in 2026, piling up 56 strikeouts in just 49 innings while cashing this prop in four consecutive starts. The veteran lefty is coming off another strong outing against the Dodgers and now faces a Cubs lineup striking out 10 times per game over its last three contests. Sale’s elite history against Chicago hitters only strengthens this play.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.