Seattle @ Toronto Picks & Props

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez has hit 23 of his 32 homers away from home this season, batting .296 with a .571 slugging percentage in that split. Meanwhile, the upcoming matchup against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is enticing. In his lone postseason start, Gausman threw 37 four-seamers and 34 splitters, mixing in just four sliders. Against those two main offerings, Rodriguez has been a menace — owning a .530 xSLG versus the split-finger and a .537 xSLG against four-seamers, ranking first and third on the team, respectively. While he’s just 4-for-17 against Gausman in his career, one of those hits was a homer, and his .295 xBA and .476 xSLG provide plenty of reason for optimism.

Daulton Varsho has been red-hot down the stretch, hitting .438 this postseason with a .617 expected slugging to rank third on the team. He homered twice in Game 2 of the ALDS, and Varsho will now face a favorable matchup against Bryce Miller. The biggest issue for the slugger has been whiffing on fastballs from righties, but Miller’s four-seamer carries a weak 23% whiff rate, which means we should see the lefty’s 22.6% barrel rate against this pitch play up. Varsho owns a 50.9% hard-hit rate against four-seamers from right-handers and has hit seven homers on the pitch this year.

Suarez issues against the splitfinger fastball will be on full display here.

Given Seattle’s travel fatigue and high strikeout tendencies, this sets up as a prime spot to back Gausman to clear his strikeout line. 

Toronto’s offense may regress eventually in this series, but with Seattle’s bullpen depleted after a marathon game, this matchup still favors the Blue Jays to stay hot and exploit the Mariners’ exhausted pitching staff. That starts with Vlad.

Raleigh mashed baseballs all year long and has three homers over just 12 at-bats against Kevin Gausman. He also hits the splitter well, which is Gausman’s most-used pitch.

George Springer scored 104 runs during the regular season, including seven over six games against the Mariners. He was at his best at home and has picked up where he left off in the playoffs, scoring three over two games in Toronto last round.