The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles play the second of a three-game set tonight, with the visitors as -115 favorites.
Chris Bassitt makes his second start since coming off the 60-day injured list, while Will Warren arrives with a 7.71 ERA and three home runs allowed across 9 1/3 innings this month.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions target a total that moved a half-run and still has not caught up to either starter. Read my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 19.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Orioles moneyline (+105)
Let's actually classify what's wrong with Baltimore Orioles right-hander Chris Bassitt.
His 5.11 ERA is a .335 BABIP problem, not a contact-quality one. He grades in the 92nd percentile in barrel rate and the 72nd percentile in ground-ball rate, and has allowed just six home runs in 61 2/3 innings.
What beats him is a lineup stringing balls in play, and the New York Yankees are the worst team in MLB at that, sitting at a .273 BABIP with the third-worst contact rate at 72.2%.
Their offense is homers or nothing, and the homer is the outcome Bassitt suppresses best.
This is a coin-flip game for me, and I'd play to +100.
COVERS INTEL: Will Warren's sinker has stopped functioning as a contact-management pitch. He throws it 26.8% of the time, and hitters have posted a .302 average with a 48.2% hard-hit rate against it, his highest mark on any offering, for a negative-5 run value.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+105)
The Yankees walk at a 9.8% clip, the fourth-best in MLB, and Bassitt cannot end an at-bat, grading in the second percentile in strikeout rate, the third in chase rate, and the fifth in xBA at .285. That is a 1.62 WHIP built on singles and free passes rather than barrels.
I noted that the Yankees offense will likely have to piece together multiple hits to really get after Bassitt. While they may struggle to do that fully, they should do enough to push this Over.
The Birds are a real crooked-number threat, too. Baltimore hit 40.5% of their batted balls in the air into Warren's sixth-percentile average exit velocity and 22.0% home run per fly ball rate.
I'd play this to 10.
Yankees vs Orioles home run prediction: Gunnar Henderson (+529)
Gunnar Henderson gets the pitch Warren cannot control. Warren's sweeper grades in the first percentile by breaking-ball run value, with hitters slugging .681 against it on 19.0% usage and a .542 xSLG. Warren has allowed 11 home runs in 66 2/3 innings to left-handed hitters.
- ML/RL bets: 44-43, +1.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 50-37, +14.49 units
Yankees vs Orioles weather
A high landing in the upper 80s with a slight wind blowing out should help the ball carry
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -115 | Orioles +110
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Orioles +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (8-6, 4.42 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (4-4, 5.11 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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