Baseball all day long! We have a full slate ahead, with plenty of value in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 19, including why I expect Pete Alonso to go nuclear.
For more props, Josh Inglis has you covered with his three favorite MLB home run predictions.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Parker Messick |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +102 |
 Griffin Conine |
To record a hit | -154 |
 Pete Alonso |
Over 1.5 H+R+RBI | -138 |
Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
One of the most exciting young pitchers in the game right now is Cleveland Guardians southpaw Parker Messick, who has the highest average strikeout rate on the slate over at Batters-Box. He also owns the No. 1 pitcher rating while facing a San Francisco Giants lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching.
So far this season, the Giants own a 23.1% strikeout rate, 76% contact rate and 33.4% swinging-strike rate. On the road against lefties, those numbers take a dive, with a 30.8% strikeout rate, 70% contact rate, and 34.2% swinging-strike rate. Over their last 60 at-bats against a left-handed pitcher, only three hitters have a strikeout rate below 13.3%. Everyone else is above 30%.
Messick has posted a near-30% strikeout rate across his last three outings, setting him up in an excellent spot to shove against an ice-cold Giants lineup. He has also recorded 6+ strikeouts in each of his last four starts.
Do not pay juice for this prop.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, NBCSBA
Griffin Conine To Record a Hit (-154)
Miami Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine to record a hit against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is mainly a price play.
For starters, Conine is the No. 1-rated hitter on Batters-Box's current-season dataset. Across 26 elite-rated matchups this season, he has recorded at least one hit 61.54% of the time.
The outfielder has been absolutely destroying the baseball lately. He homered last night, and hopefully he can go deep again, but we only need the floor here. Over his last 10 games, Conine owns an .833 SLG and .433 ISO while generating almost a 60% hard-hit rate and a 22.7% barrel rate.
Nola has been tormented by left-handed hitters at home this season, allowing them to hit .314 with a .583 SLG and .407 wOBA. On top of that, lefties are producing a 56% elevation rate and 36.8% hard-hit rate against him.
If you're not in the juice-paying business, take his hits + runs + RBI prop. However, the hit prop is playable to -160.
Check out Quinn Allen's full Marlins vs. Phillies predictions.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, NBCSP
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-138)
It is hard to ignore just how hot Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso has been over his last 10 games, posting a .947 SLG, .824 xSLG, and .447 ISO while generating a 65.6% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate.
Alonso also enters today's matchup with an elite rating on Batters-Box. Across 60 elite ratings over the last three seasons, he has gone Over this prop 68.33% of the time.
Tonight, he draws New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren, who has been allowing a boatload of hard contact to opposing hitters over his last five outings. The last 60 right-handed hitters he has faced are producing a 56% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate, all while posting a .479 xBA, .662 xSLG, and .358 ISO.
The trends and recent numbers are too delectable to pass up. Take this down to -140, or grab his 2+ bases at plus money.
Check out Chris Hatfield's full Yankees vs. Orioles predictions.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, MASN, AmazonPV
- Prop picks: 414-799, -5.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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