MLB Picks

Aaron Nola has pitched four times against teams that ranked Top-10 vs. RHP in ISO and xwOBA over 10 games heading into the matchup. He allowed run totals of six, five, three, and seven, posting a 10.50 ERA and conceding 3.0 homers per nine innings. 

Jack Flaherty has pitched well since returning but he’ll have his hands full against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank fifth in average and sixth in OPS vs. righties over the last 30 days.

Bet the Over to -115.

I’m laying the New York Yankees run line because the Washington Nationals still need Zack Littell to carry the meaningful innings after Carson Palmquist opens. The issue is not just damage allowed, it is how little swing-and-miss Littell has behind it. His 14.1% strikeout rate and 17.1% whiff rate are both well below MLB average, while hitters make 89% zone contact against him. Against a Yankees lineup that leads baseball in homers, that many balls in play creates the best margin path.

Shota Imanaga has allowed 2.7 homers per nine innings over the last two months, which shouldn’t be all that surprising given his 11th percentile ranking in barrel rate.

Hunter Greene has electric stuff but he’s still finding his groove. There isn’t much margin for error facing the Chicago Cubs, who slot fourth in ISO and sixth in hard hit rate since June 1.

Bet the Over to -130.

Both starters are pitching well, while Boston’s bullpen has been dominant lately, posting a 2.13 FIP over the last week and allowing just 0.44 HR/9. New York’s offense has been productive, but Gray’s form and McLean’s ability to work deep into games support a lower-scoring matchup tonight in this contest.

This may be one of the biggest vibes plays I've made all season, as White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami is expected to return from the IL. Chicago's offense has gone cold this week, but getting its star first baseman back could be the spark this lineup needs. The White Sox also draw Aaron Civale, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and has struggled to miss bats or limit quality contact. He's allowed 8 first inning runs through 15 starts. Sean Burke hasn't been much better, surrendering 9 first inning runs in 14 starts. With both pitchers vulnerable early, I like a YRFI.

Hunter Brown’s ability to limit hard contact, and induce grounders at a high rate, makes him particularly well-equipped to prevent runs in a pitcher's park. The Houston Astros will give Brown enough support to win, but I wouldn’t expect a ceiling performance offensively. For all Cal Quantrill’s faults, he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact and has limited homers effectively (1.12 HR/9). There’s enough there to avoid a blowup. Bet to -125.

Kody Clemens finds himself in another strong home run spot Friday as he faces Angels right hander Grayson Rodriguez. Clemens enters with an elite matchup rating, covering over 91% of Rodriguez’s pitch mix, and has homered in 22.22% of his elite rated matchups this season. The Twins slugger has been crushing right handed pitching lately, posting a .561 SLG, .844 OPS, and .298 ISO with a 58.7% hard hit rate. Rodriguez has struggled against left handed bats, allowing a .469 wOBA and 52.2% hard hit rate. This matchup sets up well for Clemens to go deep.

L.A's bullpen is well-rested while Arizona's has been great, ranking top-5 in FIP (3.35) and SIERA (3.28) in the last 14 days. Shohei Ohtani has dominated Arizona's lineup in the past (.170 AVG and .484 OPS across 47 at-bats) and they lack the power (.137 ISO) to take advantage in hitter-friendly weather. The Dodgers are 3-11 O/U with him on the mound while Arizona is 1-10-1 O/U in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 12 outings.

Rafael Devers is one of my favorite home run looks on the slate, and the price is too good to ignore. The Giants slugger has been destroying right handed pitching, posting elite power numbers over his last 60 plate appearances against righties. He draws a favorable matchup against Tanner Gordon, whose arsenal grades below average and has struggled to keep left handed hitters in check. Devers also owns the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box using the default ratings, with elite ratings turning into home runs 22% of the time. Everything lines up for Devers to do what he does best.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.