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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 18, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+170 
|
o7.5 -117
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.23 |
-179 
|
u8.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +125 
|
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Royals last 11 overall.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Royals last 11 on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
o0.5+153
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
-124
|
o8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +134 
|
|
4.28 |
+110 
|
u9.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -150
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Burns' last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Sal Stewart o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.15 |
-134
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +128
|
|
4.16 |
+125
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Jake Bauers o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.76 |
+107
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -200 
|
|
3.79 |
-120
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +175
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-1 in Red Sox last 9 games as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.57 |
+166
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.71 |
-190
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Daniel Espino o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.89 |
+102
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.09 |
-110
|
u8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +165
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
o1.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+115
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.56 |
-130
|
u8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +164
|
Detroit
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 on grass.
- White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+256)
o0.5+256
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-132
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.77 |
+120
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -142
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Ceases last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Texas
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
o1.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-180
|
o10.5 -105
|
-1.5 -117
|
|
5.37 |
+156
|
u10.5 -109
|
+1.5 +100
|
Seattle
- Over is 9-1 in Mariners last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 10-2 in Mariners last 12 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games a home underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-116
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.59 |
+102
|
u8.5 -112
|
+1.5 -164
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.40 |
-104
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.16 |
-112
|
u7.5 -102
|
-1.5 +150
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Leahys last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
JJ Wetherholt o0.5 Total RBIs (+360)
o0.5+360
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-120
|
o7.0 -210
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.76 |
+108
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 on grass.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Grayson Rodriguez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+375)
o4.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+167
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.44 |
-193
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +120
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 overall.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 on grass.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
o5.5+124
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.10 |
-125
|
o7.0 -215
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.87 |
+115
|
u8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -150
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+250
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+2.5 -140
|
|
5.32 |
-295
|
u8.0 -110
|
-2.5 +115
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 overall.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+243)
o0.5+243
KC
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Dobnak doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of every team today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days.. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .038 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .381.
CHC
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed home runs.. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest left field fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 81°.
Total RBIs
Sal Stewart o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Sal Stewart is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 81°.. Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
MIL
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Colton Cowser o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+200)
Projection 1.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Dustin May in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jake Bauers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph in recent games.
BOS
@
TB
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (+107)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.
Total RBIs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Trevor Story's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 field in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Ian Seymour throws from, Trevor Story will have an advantage today.. Trevor Story has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, Trevor Story has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 35.7° figure over the last 7 days.
ATH
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jo Adell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-138)
Projection 2.34
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for right-handed BABIP.. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Progressive Field.. The Athletics infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team playing today.
PHI
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Bryce Harper's 63% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.5%.
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Bryce Harper's 63% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.5%.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
62% of the time that Randal Grichuk has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Over the last 14 days, Randal Grichuk's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .045 disparity.
Total RBIs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Miguel Vargas will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Sears in today's game.. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
TOR
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Jake Burger will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jake Burger has paced 26.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Jake Burger has averaged 28.2 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 85th percentile for power.
Total RBIs
Josh Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Josh Smith will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Josh Smith has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 80th percentile with a 1.88 K/BB rate.
ATL
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The starting pitching may be steady, but both bullpens have been vulnerable lately. Houston’s relief corps has been especially shaky, carrying a 6.46 FIP with 2.52 HR/9 allowed over the last week. With Atlanta swinging it well, there’s plenty of late-game scoring potential here.
WAS
@
STL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. Abimelec Ortiz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Leahy in today's game.. Abimelec Ortiz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 101.3-mph in the past week.
Total Bases
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Cavalli.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIN
@
LAA
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Total RBIs
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+163)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage against Grayson Rodriguez today.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.
Total RBIs
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Jose Siri ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Siri is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Jose Siri will hold the platoon advantage over Connor Prielipp in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.
MIA
@
SD
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
Projection 6.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in the game.. The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine).. The #9 venue in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Manny Machado o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
Projection 2.2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase Field ranks as the #3 stadium in baseball for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Gerrit Cole throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.
SF
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Drew Gilbert o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Drew Gilbert has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Drew Gilbert will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enrique Hernandez in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Enrique Hernandez is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Enrique Hernandez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 18.9% to 4.3%.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 4.3% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
