Kansas City @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. today... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bobby Witt Jr.'s true offensive talent to be a .367, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .022 gap between that figure and his actual .389 wOBA.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Salvador Perez will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. Salvador Perez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Salvador Perez's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 91.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 88.9-mph over the last 14 days. When it comes to his batting average, Salvador Perez has been very fortunate this year. His .279 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. In the last week, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 93.6 mph to 86.5 mph. In the last week, Jarren Duran's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.7%.

Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Kyle Isbel has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89.1-mph average.

Michael Massey is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Michael Massey will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Michael Massey tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Vinnie Pasquantino in today's matchup. Vinnie Pasquantino's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 14.8% on the season to 7.5% over the past 14 days. Posting a .243 BABIP this year, Vinnie Pasquantino grades out in the 9th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Wilyer Abreu will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Wilyer Abreu usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all major league parks. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Masataka Yoshida will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Masataka Yoshida has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Adam Frazier will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Rafael Devers projects as the 17th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Given Brady Singer's large platoon split, Rafael Devers will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Because of Brady Singer's large platoon split, David Hamilton will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage today.

Garrett Hampson's BABIP skill is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Garrett Hampson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Garrett Hampson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 13.9% to 22.4%. Garrett Hampson has compiled a .370 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, MJ Melendez ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. MJ Melendez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today's game. Dominic Smith has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all major league parks. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks.

Fenway Park profiles as the #7 park in MLB for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage against Brady Singer today... and moreover, Singer has a large platoon split. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Reese McGuire's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (14.6°) is considerably better than his 8.3° mark last year.

The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Freddy Fermin pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Sporting a .283 batting average this year, Freddy Fermin has performed in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's game.

The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Hunter Renfroe's launch angle this season (19.4°) is significantly higher than his 14.9° mark last year. In terms of plate discipline, Hunter Renfroe's skill is quite impressive, posting a 2.01 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Maikel Garcia has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Maikel Garcia has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 4.6% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week. Maikel Garcia has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph EV.