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Australia vs Denmark World Cup Picks and Predictions: Aussies Bow Out Against Danes

Denmark are the superior side but that doesn't mean they'll jump out to an early lead. The Danes haven't scored before the half in either of their first two games. Find out if we think they'll break that mould or if the Aussies have a chance at the upset.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2022 7:50 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Christian Eriksen Denmark World Cup
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday's World Cup action gives us the final games of Group D, with Australia and Denmark meeting in a winner-takes-all clash. Win and you’ll be in the knockouts — unless Tunisia somehow beat France, who have already qualified.

A draw could even be enough for the Aussies to make it to the next round. Will they pull it off even if World Cup odds don't love their chances? Don’t miss our World Cup picks and predictions.

Australia vs Denmark odds

Australia vs Denmark picks and predictions

Group D is finely poised ahead of Wednesday’s deciding games. France sit at the top of the table with six points and because of a great goal difference, it’s very unlikely they get caught and will finish top of the group.

Australia sit second with three points, ahead of both Denmark and Tunisia, who are on a point apiece. If Australia beat Denmark, they qualify for the Round of 16. If they draw, they’ve probably qualified, unless Tunisia beat France, which surely won’t happen. Likewise, a win gets Denmark into the next round, unless Tunisia beat France and finish with a better goal difference. Got that? Now let’s get into the game at hand.

Denmark were expected to do well here, especially after a brilliant run to the Euro semis last year. It hasn’t quite happened for them here, though. They drew 0-0 to Tunisia in the opener, despite being the better team, and then lost 2-1 to France. 

The Aussies got pumped by France in the opening game, losing 4-1 while playing like a high school team. Then, they got a 1-0 win over Tunisia, a result that has them on the verge of qualifying for the knockouts.

In all truth, this Denmark team is far superior. They have a cohesive unit and although they haven’t reached the heights expected, they’re still tough to break down and are well organized. The main issue has been a lack of goals, with just one in two games, and that goal came from a defender. The frontmen need to do more.

Denmark are too talented not to win, but it’s going to be tough to break down Australia, who know a draw will likely see them through. 

At this World Cup, we’ve seen a lot of games going into halftime at 0-0 and I expect this one to be the same. Denmark haven’t had a first-half goal in either of their two games, so I’m backing a draw at halftime with Denmark winning at full-time, available at +300. Australia will look to hold their place in the next round but they won’t be able to keep Denmark at bay as they lay on the pressure in the second half.

My best bet: Draw/Denmark (half time/full time) (+300 at bet365)

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Australia vs Denmark side analysis

Given I backed Denmark to win at full-time, it goes without saying that Denmark to win is the choice here but -185 isn’t a great price when you can get +300 on the HT/FT bet. The Danes set themselves out in a 3-4-2-1 against France and they should deploy that system again. Christian Eriksen and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg are the key players for Denmark as they sit in the middle of the park, protecting the backline and threading the balls forward into Damsgaard and Cornelius.

The Aussies went 4-4-2 against Tunisia having played 4-1-4-1 against the French. Their system against France just allowed pressure onto them and even though they’ll play this game defensively, I imagine they’ll stick with a 4-4-2 and most likely the same lineup.

Riley McGree and Mitchell Duke will lead the line again and Duke will hope to add another goal to his tally having scored that winner against Tunisia. In the midfield, it’s Aaron Mooy who’ll be running the show. The Celtic midfielder has represented his country 55 times and has plenty of big-game experience in the Premier League. It’s not going to be quite enough to stop Denmark, who should have the quality to get the three points and secure passage to the Round of 16.

Australia vs Denmark Over/Under analysis

I’ve got no strong lean here and the bookies seem to have it fairly balanced, too.

Both teams have had one game Over 2.5 and one Under 2.5, and this one could go either way. I’m expecting a goalless first half, so for that reason, I’d lean towards backing the Under, but there’s always a chance that a goal for either side will open the game up and we could see a second half with three goals.

I’d play the percentages though and say if the first half is goalless, then we’ll likely have Under 2.5 goals in the game.

Australia vs Denmark game info

Location: Al Janoub Stadium, Al Wakrah, Qatar
Date: Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Time: 10:00 a.m. ET

Australia vs Denmark key injuries

Australia: None.
Denmark: None.

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