Tottenham vs Arsenal Predictions & Picks for Sunday’s EPL Matchup

The latest North London Derby is lacking some star power, but Kai Havertz and Arsenal should still have the upper hand in what looks like it will be a low-scoring affair.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Sep 13, 2024 • 10:25 ET • 4 min read
Havertz Arsenal EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The North London Derby is one of the world’s most anticipated games, and this week Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal is undoubtedly the biggest game in the Premier League.
 
These two fierce rivals will meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday with both teams hopeful for successful seasons after a mixed start to their campaigns. 

Make sure you read my Tottenham vs. Arsenal predictions and free betting picks to see why I think goals will be tough to come by.

EPL predictions for Tottenham vs Arsenal

My best bet:
Under 2.5 (+137 at Betano)

My analysis

Arsenal come into the game as favorites but injuries and suspensions have made their task considerably harder. Summer signing Mikel Merino is yet to make his debut, while Declan Rice is suspended and Martin Odegaard out for a number of weeks. That instantly deprives the midfield of three players, two of whom have been very influential over the past 12 months.

Those injuries play into our best bet for the game, which is for Under 2.5 goals, available at a good plus-odds price. Odegaard, their main creative player, is a huge loss for the team as he operates in the 10 position and threads together attacking play. Without him, they’re less likely to score. 

Tottenham are also hit by injuries in attacking positions with Richarlison ruled out of this game. It remains unclear if Dominic Solanke will return from an injury that’s kept him out of the past two matches, but even if he is back ,he’s unlikely to be at 100%. That means both Spurs and Arsenal won’t be at their best here, something sure to help keep the score low in this game.

The final reason for backing the Under is Arsenal’s exceptional defense. Last season they had the best defensive record in the Premier League, giving up just 29 goals across 38 games. That was five goals fewer than the next best team, which really underlines just how good they were. They’ve started this season brilliantly too, with just a single goal allowed through three games. 

The back four of William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Ben White, and Jurrien Timber is a fantastic unit with Saliba now amongst the greatest defenders on the planet. Without key players in their midfield, we’re going to see Mikel Arteta rely on his team’s defense to get them a narrow win. 

Back this to be a low scoring game with Under 2.5 goals.

Tottenham vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 2.5

Kai Havertz to score anytime

Arsenal to win

Kai Havertz has impressed this season and already has two goals to his name. He’s become a key cog in how this team plays and will fancy his chances of scoring against Spurs.

I’m also going to back Arsenal to win the game. They’re the better team and we’ve seen across the past two seasons that they have a real winner’s mentality, finding ways to win when they need it most. 

Despite missing some big players, they’ll pull together as a unit and get the three points on the road.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Tottenham vs Arsenal odds

Tottenham vs Arsenal live odds

Tottenham vs Arsenal opening odds

  • Moneyline: Tottenham +290 | Arsenal -105
  • Draw: +240
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Tottenham vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis

  • Arsenal have won four of the last six meetings between the teams.
  • None of Arsenal’s three Premier League games so far have had more than two goals.
  • Tottenham have allowed only one goal per game over their first three tilts of the season.

Tottenham vs Arsenal game info

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
Date: Sunday, 9-15-2024
Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
TV: USA
Weather: 69F, 10 mph winds, 10% PoP
Tottenham  recent EPL form L-W-D
Arsenal  recent EPL form D-W-W

Tottenham vs Arsenal key injuries

Tottenham: Richarlison STR (Out), Micky van de Ven DEF (Questionable), Yves Bissouma CM (Questionable), Dominic Solanke STR (Questionable).
Arsenal: Takehiro Tomiyasu FB (Out), Kieran Tierney LB (Out), Mikel Merino CM (Out), Declan Rice CM (Out), Martin Odegaard CAM (Out), Gabriel Jesus STR (Questionable), Riccardo Calafiori DEF (Questionable).

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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