Southampton vs Manchester City Picks and Predictions: Citizens Prove Too Much in the End

Man City enter as large betting chalk in the EFL Cup quarterfinals on Wednesday at St. Mary's Stadium. Find out where the betting edge lies for this match in our Southampton vs. Manchester City betting picks.

Last Updated: Jan 11, 2023 1:04 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Phil Foden Manchester City EFL Cup
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, we get the second installment of this year’s EFL Cup quarterfinals, with Southampton taking on Manchester City.

Can Man City get to yet another semifinal, or will Southampton be able to pull off a shock upset? Find out in our Southampton vs. Manchester City picks and predictions for January 11.

Southampton vs Manchester City odds

Southampton Manchester City
+1,200 Moneyline -500
+550 Draw +550
Over 2.5 (-225) Total Under 2.5 (+170)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on January 9, 2023.

Southampton vs Manchester City picks and predictions

For Southampton, being in the semifinals of a major cup competition gives them a chance to take their mind off of their Premier League woes. They currently sit at the bottom of the table and are in serious need of results.

Southampton haven’t won a league game since October 19, but they managed to beat Crystal Palace this past Saturday in the FA Cup, proving that Nathan Jones’ team might have the spirit for cup contests.

Meanwhile, Man City are experiencing a very different campaign and currently reside second in the table. The League Cup was won by Liverpool last season, but before that, it had been lifted by Manchester City in each of the previous four years.

It may not be their main priority, but Pep Guardiola prides himself in winning trophies, and there is no doubt they’ll be taking this game seriously, even if they do rest some of their star players. 

So, how will Wednesday’s game unfold? Given the struggles that we’ve seen from Southampton this season, it’s hard to imagine Man City not managing to qualify here. With them coming in as such large favorites, we'll need to be a bit creative with our wager.

The most attractive bet seems to be banking on the game to be tied at halftime, with Man City winning at full-time. 

This is a cup quarterfinal, and Southampton won’t be throwing players forward looking to score. Instead, they’ll play it smart, sitting back conservatively and hitting City on the counter.

For City, they might not be as free-scoring as usual, given that they could well make some changes in their starting rotation. It wouldn’t be a shock if the likes of Julian Alvarez, Cole Palmer, and Rico Lewis started in this one.

The drop-off in quality might be enough to slow City down and limit their chances of scoring early in this match.

My best bet: Draw/Man City – HT/FT (+335 at BetRivers)

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Southampton vs Manchester City side analysis

Both teams should send out similar-looking teams on Wednesday, with both Jones and Guardiola likely to employ a 4-2-3-1 formation. For Southampton, it’s likely they’ll play a strong team and that Ainsley Maitland-Niles will be sitting deep in the midfield alongside James Ward-Prowse. Those two and their ability to disrupt City’s attacking talent will be key to the Saints’ hopes of winning this one.

Che Adams will be tasked with scoring for Southampton. Although the Scottish striker only has four goals in 15 Premier League starts, he’s been lethal in front of goal in this competition with four scores in just two games.

As mentioned earlier, Man City could be sitting key players in this one. Erling Haaland was rested against Chelsea in the FA Cup on Sunday and could see an extended break to keep him fresh for the Premier League.

Regardless, City remain the better team, even if they are without regular starters on Wednesday.

Southampton vs Manchester City Over/Under analysis

With over 2.5 goals available at a best price of -200, it’s clear that the public is expecting this match to be high scoring, and I’d have to agree with them. Both teams have only played two games in this competition, so it’s hard to gain anything from a sample size that small.

Instead, we'll look at league form. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 55.6% of Southampton’s games at St Mary’s Stadium this year and Over 2.5 goals in 64.7% of the visitors' games this season.

Southampton vs Manchester City game info

Location: St. Mary's Stadium, Southhampton, England
Date: Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+

Southampton vs Manchester City key injuries

Southampton: Tino Livramento RB (Out), Armel Bella-Kotchap CB (Out), Theo Walcott FWR (Out), Alex McCarthy GK (Out).
Manchester City: Ruben Dias CB (Out).

Southampton vs Manchester City weather

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s when the game kicks off. It’ll have rained earlier in the day, but it should be dry by the time the match starts.

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