We’re all looking forward to Wednesday’s Champions League semifinal second-leg clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City.
The first leg finished 4-3 to Man City in one of the most exciting fixtures in the competition all year, if not longer. A truly great game.
Can Real Madrid overcome the one-goal deficit at the Bernabeau? Don’t miss our Real Madrid vs. Man City tips and predictions to find out.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City match odds
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City (+105)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 (-188)
- Best bet: Casemiro to get booked (+110)
Predictions made on 5/2/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Real Madrid vs Manchester City game info
• Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Real Madrid vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
It’ll be dry in Madrid on Wednesday with temperatures around 60 degrees at kick-off.
Injuries
Read Madrid: Eden Hazard FW (Out), David Alaba CM (Questionable).
Manchester City: Kyle Walker RB (Questionable), John Stones CB (Questionable).
Real Madrid vs Manchester City predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Wednesday sees another huge Champions League game as Real Madrid welcomes Manchester City to the Bernabeau. If the game is even half as good as the first leg then we could have a classic on our hands.
The first leg finished 4-3 with Manchester City escaping the victors. After taking a 2-0 lead after 11 minutes, it looked like Pep Guardiola’s team could run away with it but Real Madrid kept clawing back — leaving just one goal down almost felt like a victory.
Some in the media have described it as City’s best performance in Europe and at times that was true. They were magnificent in possession of the ball and their goals were fantastic, but giving up three goals is still a huge disappointment and the game is still very much hanging in the balance, something that looked unlikely after 11 minutes.
City had 60% possession, with 16 shots to Real’s 11 and 613 passes to Real’s 416. I’d expect the second leg to follow a similar path, even though it’s being played in Madrid. We know how Guardiola’s teams play and they will see the majority of the ball and look to suffocate Real, who will need to be at their best to resist it.
Real Madrid will be pleased to see Casemiro return to the starting lineup having missed the first leg. The Brazilian is a crucial piece in Real’s three-man midfield alongside Luka Modric and Toni Kroos and often does a lot of the grunt work that allows the two more expressive players to be able to showcase their talents.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team, who won La Liga this past weekend, will be led from the front by Karim Benzema. Arguably the best striker on the planet right now, the Frenchman was in dangerous form in Manchester, scoring twice. Again, he’ll be the main threat for Los Blancos but his sidekick Vinicius Junior also needs to be feared. He’s added another dimension to his game this season and his decision-making has improved, which makes his electric pace even more dangerous.
Real Madrid’s defense was poor when these two clubs met last week and at one point froze like statues waiting for a freekick when the referee played advantage, leading to a City goal. David Alaba is set to miss out with injury, which will lead to the veteran Nacho likely partnering with Eder Militao.
Man City will be welcoming back Joao Cancelo back, with the fullback missing last week's game with a suspension. It was noticeable that both he and Kyle Walker were missing and the combination of Oleksandr Zinchenko and John Stones, later Fernandinho, gave Real too many chances.
Zinchenko should start this week on the left side, allowing Cancelo to cover Walker’s continued absence. Elsewhere, the starting XI isn’t so clear, up front you’d expect Gabriel Jesus to start given his excellent goalscoring form, as well as Phil Foden with the third spot going to either Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling, or Jack Grealish. Guardiola could even move Kevin De Bruyne or Bernardo Silva to a more attacking position to allow Ilkay Gundogan to slot into midfield alongside Rodri and offer more defensive shape.
Man City were simply electric last week and the 4-3 result probably flatters this week’s hosts. City can play this game smart and just manage the fixture, scoring freely again and putting this game beyond doubt. City are well worth backing here, especially at +105.
Prediction: Manchester City (+105 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Last week’s game finished 4-3 with 27 shots, so we simply have to back Over 2.5 goals here. City were very great going forward last week and they should have plenty of chances once again.
Domestically, we’ve seen Man City score 84 goals and Real score 73 goals, proving that both teams are able to create a ton of goals. I’d imagine we see another high-scoring game, but the odds of -188 aren’t that attractive, for that reason I’d probably only put a small stake on this.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-188 at bet365)
Best bet
Real Madrid will be so happy to have Casemiro back in the lineup, as his skills at breaking up opposition play will be a huge boost. Real come into this game with a deficit to make up and at some point in proceedings, they’re going to need to push forward to score, something that will leave them wide open to conceding. It’s very easy to see Casemiro picking up a booking given that situation and he certainly has form for it.
In 306 career games, he’s picked up 83 yellow cards and two red cards. His viciousness is one of the traits that has led him to so much success but it also does see him pick up a lot of bookings, something we should get here.
It's even more of a slam dunk when you consider the game is being officiated by Daniele Orsato, who's dished out 160 yellows and five reds in just 27 games in all competitions. Given the card-happy referee and game script, we should see a Casemiro booking here.
Pick: Casemiro to get booked (+110 at bet365)
