There’s a big Champions League clash between PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League this Tuesday, February 20. Both teams would have been relatively happy with this draw for the Round of 16, with neither team getting a heavyweight, and both will fancy their chances of progression. My free betting picks will guide you through the big game.
Can the Dutch team build up a strong home lead ahead of the vital second leg in Germany? Don’t miss my PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund tips and predictions to find out.
PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund best odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
If you look back at the group stages, we can see both of these teams favored a cautious approach at times. PSV were well aware of the quality within their group, with Arsenal deserving favorites and Sevilla a team with huge European experience.
In their six group games, Eindhoven picked up three draws. Impressively two of those were at home to Arsenal and Sevilla and in their other home game against Lens, they won. PSV scored in each home game but weren’t able to keep the opposition out either, which feels like a pattern that could emerge again here.
The Phillips Stadion will be rocking come Tuesday, but they’ll need to be loud and cheer their team through against a Dortmund team who are generally good in front of goal, scoring 44 league goals in 22 games.
A draw would work well for Dortmund here too, with the scores level before taking them back to Germany it would give them a platform on which they’d expect to then be able to go and win at home.
They tied two of their six Champions League group games — against PSG and Milan — and again they showed that they were cautious first, with the vast majority of goals in their games being scored in the second half.
Dortmund haven’t been at their best in the Bundesliga this season, but, notably, they’ve drawn eight of their 22 games, including two of their last three. They are a good side but at times are perhaps too cautious and safety first, and often don’t have the cutting edge that we’ve seen in previous years to break teams down.
Both teams will fancy their chances of winning this game but what is even more important to both managers is making sure that they’re still in the tie for the second leg. This game will be tight, it’ll be cagey, and at +275 you’re getting good value on scores finished level.
My best bet: Draw (+275 at TonyBet)
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PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay
Draw
Both teams to score
Luuk de Jong Over 1.5 shots
In addition to my best bet of the game, I'm going to back both teams to score. Dortmund scored in four of their six Champions League group games, with PSV scoring in five of their six, except for a defeat at Arsenal, and BTTS landing in four of their six games too.
The final leg of my SGP is for PSV’s Luuk de Jong to have Over 1.5 shots. These don’t need to be on target, he just needs to take the shots. Looking back across his season so far you can see that he’s averaged 3.8 shots per game in the Eredivisie and 3.0 in the Champions League.
He’s the central figure for his team’s attack and so much of the play goes through him, as shown by his 21 goals this season. He should have two or more shots here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund side and Over/Under analysis
The home side are favorites but +121 seems quite short for a team who aren’t used to playing teams of Dortmund’s quality, even if this isn’t a vintage side. The +215 you can get on a Dortmund win is far more attractive than betting on PSV but the draw still offers the most intriguing mix of odds and likelihood.
One thing we can be fairly certain of is goals, and Over 2.5 goals looks like an obvious play at -157 if you look purely at the numbers. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59.1% of Dortmund’s Bundesliga games this season and 72.7% of PSV’s league games.
However, a close look at Champions League games in particular shows Overs landing just once in the group stage for Dortmund, and only in 50% of PSV’s games. With this being a first leg game, and potentially a very cagey one, the Under probably makes the safest play at +131 with a 1-1 draw feeling very possible.
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PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund game info
| Location: | Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, Netherlands |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Weather: | Temp: 49 F, POP: 0%, Wind: 13mph |
PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries
PSV Eindhoven: Guus Til CM (Out), Noa Lang FWR (Out).
Borussia Dortmund: Felix Nmecha CM (Out).
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