We've got midweek Premier League action on Thursday as Nottingham Forest host Brentford at the City Ground.
With Champions League aspirations still intact, my Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford predictions explain why poor form may hold Forest back from collecting all three points.
Read on for my free betting picks for Thursday, May 1, with kickoff at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
Premier League predictions for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford picks and predictions
My best bet: Draw (+250 at bet365)
My analysis
This game has huge implications for the home side, who are in a desperate hunt to finish in the top five and seal Champions League qualification for next season.
Brentford, with nothing really left to play for, would love to spoil their party. Thomas Frank’s Brentford are stuck firmly in midtable, they can’t go down and have no realistic chance of getting European competition next season.
That isn’t the case for Forest, who now occupy sixth spot in the Premier League, which would have them qualifying for the Europa League group stage. That isn’t what they want, though, and a win in this, their game in hand, would give them three points that would push them up to third in the table, overtaking Newcastle, Man City, and Chelsea. Retaking third spot would be a huge achievement for the Midlands club and it’s an area in the table that they’ve been in for most of the season.
Sadly, for Forest’s fans, our best bet for the game is for it to finish as a draw, earning them a single point.
There are two main reasons for going against a Forest win here. The first is perhaps the most obvious: they’re in really bad form. They lost 2-0 to Man City in the FA Cup semifinal this past Sunday, which was their third defeat in four games.
Forest have been consistently brilliant throughout the season and are far outperforming expectations, however, they have been damaged by injuries in recent weeks. Their star striker, Chris Wood, got injured playing for New Zealand in the March international break, and although he’s now returned, he’s only scored one goal since and hasn’t been playing at the level that he was earlier in the season. They’ve also lost Ola Aina to injury, an important part of their defensive set-up and perhaps a reason why they’ve been leaking goals recently.
They’ve hit a bad patch of form at the worst possible time, and with Newcastle and Man City looking like they’ve discovered their form, it’s going to make finishing in a UCL slot incredibly hard.
This game also looks like a tough one.
Brentford haven’t had a great season by their standards, but sitting 11th in the table is still impressive given their modest spending, as Frank continues to do an excellent job. They’ve also really turned things around in recent weeks with just two defeats in their past nine games. This run of games has seen them win three times on the road as well as picking up draws against Chelsea and Arsenal, and a 4-2 win over Brighton, in their past three games.
Brentford have been strong on the road since the end of December, with two draws and five wins in their past eight Premier League games away from the Gtech Community Stadium. With Forest struggling to find their form, this is a dangerous time to host Brentford, and there’s a real chance that Frank’s team leave with something, with a draw feeling like a great value proposition at current odds.
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford same-game parlay (SGP)
Draw
Under 2.5 goals
Bryan Mbeumo 1+ shots on target
In addition to our best bet for the game, we’re also going to back the game to finish with Under 2.5 goals. As discussed above, this game has the potential to be a tight, cagey matchup. While Brentford’s season is over, Forest’s is far from over, and they’re desperate to find a way to qualify for the Champions League. We’ve seen 11 of 16 games at the City Ground finish with Under 2.5 goals, including the last four, and with so much on the line, that feels likely.
To finish off the SGP, we’re backing Bryan Mbeumo to have a shot on target. The Brentford man comes into this full of confidence, having put on a masterful performance in the win over Brighton at the weekend, scoring two and setting up another. He’s averaged 1.09 shots on target per 90 minutes played in the Premier League this season and will be a threat to Forest.
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford odds
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford live odds
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford opening odds
- Moneyline: Nottingham Forest +115 | Brentford +225
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (+100)
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford side and Over/Under analysis
- Nottingham Forest have lost three of their last four games in all competitions.
- Brentford have lost just two of their past nine games in the league, with four wins in that span.
- In the past five games between the teams, since Forest returned to the EPL in 2022, we’ve seen two draws, two Brentford wins, and Forest with one victory, their most recent meeting in December.
- Forest’s past four games at the City Ground have had Under 2.5 goals, as have 11 of their 16 home games in the Premier League this season.
- There have been Over 2.5 goals in 63.8% of Brentford’s EPL games this season and a staggering 68.8% of their league games away from home, including five of their past seven on the road.
How to watch Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
| Location | City Ground, Nottingham, UK |
| Date | Thursday, 5-1-2025 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | Light rain. |
 Recent EPL form |
W-L-L-W-W |
 Recent EPL form |
W-D-D-L-W |
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford key injuries
Nottingham Forest: Ola Aina DEF (Questionable).
Brentford: Fabio Carvalho FWR (Out), Josh Dasilva MID (Out), Yunus Emre Konak MID (Out), Aaron Hickey DEF (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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