Fresh off an 8-0 win on Sunday, Newcastle now set their sights on exacting some revenge on Manchester City in what figures to be a thrilling midweek EFL Cup clash.
The setting could not be better for the occasion at St. James' Park and with two teams oozing confidence, it's hard to imagine this game being like the first clash on August 8 — a game that Man City dominated and the Magpies finished with just one shot on target.
EFL Cup odds have this game much closer in odds than the last, with Man City a slight +140 favorite with the total sitting at 2.5 juiced to the over.
Did the Toon Army leave any bullets in the chamber for this one? Or will Man City continue their domination and march on to the Round of 16?
Find out in my best betting picks for Newcastle vs. Manchester City on Wednesday, September 27.
Newcastle vs Man City best odds
|Over 2.5 (-147)||Total||Under 2.5 (+115)|
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on September 27, 2023.
Newcastle vs Man City picks and predictions
To start, we'll give credit where credit is due. Newcastle played about as good a game as you can play on Sunday and were rewarded handsomely with an 8-nil win. Eight different players found the score sheet, and they managed 15 shots on target to Sheffield United's solitary attempt. Congrats, but finding the score sheet once, let alone multiple times vs. Manchester City is going to prove to be a tall task.
Manchester City are dominating teams for fun. They've won eight consecutive games, and while the scoring exploits will get the bulk of the praise, defensively they've been one of the better teams at keeping teams out of their net. In those eight games, they've conceded just five goals while scoring 20.
Erling Haaland has proven he's no one-season wonder, as he's leading the team (and league) in goals with eight. Some might have thought the loss of Kevin de Bryune would have a drastically negative effect on the team, but Pep Guardiola continues to find the right formations and combinations that keep the big blue machine humming along with no signs of slowing down.
Going on the road to St. James' Park will not face the Citizens as they've lost just one time over their last 23 away fixtures in all competitions.
As far as Newcastle are concerned, this game will be a chance to continue their momentum from Sunday's win, as well as prove to themselves they can hang with the big boys after losing to Man City in Matchweek 2, which started a three-game losing streak.
Despite the momentum, I'm not so sure the Magpies have the defensive effort needed for 90 minutes to keep Manchester City out. This is the best price you'll get on Manchester City likely all season long and we have to jump on it.
My best bet: Manchester City moneyline (+140 at TonyBet)
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Newcastle vs Man City same-game parlay
I'll start my same-game parlay the way I always do with my best bet leading the line. Manchester City are sitting at a very juicy price to get the job done inside of the 90 minutes and I'll take their fine defensive record and superior talent level over Newcastle's any day of the week.
From there we pivot to the man — Erling Haaland — and I expect him to have his shooting boots ready for this game. Despite all that Haaland has accomplished with City over his first year, the knock on him is that he does not show up in big Cup matches.
I'd classify this game as one, but I'm expecting a motivated Haaland to feast on a Newcastle defense who, outside of the last match, give up a ton of chances and allow teams plenty of possession. Haaland will take advantage of a leaky defense and could very well end up with two goals — not just two shots on target.
Finally, I'll round off my SGP with an Over 8 corners leg. If this game goes the way I think it will, it'll be one-way traffic towards Newcastle's goal and they'll do everything in their power to defend well and clear their lines. City have taken 29 corner kicks over their last three matches, while Newcastle have taken 13. Give me all of the corners.
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Newcastle vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis
As I mentioned off the top, this +140 price on Manchester City to win is likely the best price you are going to be able to bet them at all season long. I'm jumping on board and would do it 10/10 times, any day of the week.
Manchester City have proven to be the best team in the world over the first month of the domestic campaigns and I don't expect them to slow down. Once the lineups are announced, this line will likely come crashing down to around +105 or maybe even money. Get in on City while the price is nice.
As for the total, the 2.5 juiced to the Over at -147 seems about where it should be. Newcastle should be oozing with confidence and will know they need to score at least one (probably two) if they want any chance of qualifying for the next round. With City, you know what you're going to get and that's a possession-style game that sees them create plenty of chances and take them well.
I'd take the Over if it somehow dropped in price to -135 or lower.
Newcastle vs Man City game info
|Location:||St. James Park, Newcastle, England|
|Date:||Wednesday, September 27, 2023|
|Time:||3:00 p.m. ET|
|Weather:||Cool 66 degrees fahrenheit with a 10% chance of rain.|
Newcastle vs Man City key injuries
Newcastle: Harvey Barnes (Questionable), Joelinton (Out), Joe Willock (Out), Emil Krafth (Out).
Man City: Rodri (Suspended), Bernardo Silva (Doubtful), Mateo Kovacic (Questionable), John Stones (Doubtful), Kevin de Bruyne (Out).