This was supposed to be the season that Newcastle elevated their play and seriously contended for the Premier League Title alongside the big boys. What started as a promising season has quickly turned to anguish as Newcastle have dropped their last three league games to Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton. This string of losses has them sitting in 14th place on just three points, and the Magpies will find it very difficult to replicate their Champions League spot finish from a year ago.
Next on the schedule is Brentford and the current EPL odds have Newcastle as -180 home favorites. Can the Magpies right the ship and get their season back on track or will the Bees pile on the misery?
Find out in my best free EPL picks for Newcastle vs. Brentford on Saturday, September 16.
Newcastle vs Brentford best odds
Newcastle vs Brentford picks and predictions
After a dominating 5-1 victory vs. Aston Villa to kick off the 2023 Premier League season, Newcastle find themselves looking in the mirror to figure out what's gone wrong. Three consecutive defeats to Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton have them closer to relegation than the Champions League position they occupied last year.
The schedule definitely did them no favors early in the year, but the Magpies only have themselves to blame. They let a 1-0 lead slip away vs. a 10-man Liverpool in the span of 10 minutes and then were trumped by an Evan Ferguson hattrick vs. Brighton.
Looking ahead to Saturday, Newcastle's defense will once again be tested by a Brentford side that's notched eight goals over their first four games. They'll need to find a way to slow down the Bees' uptempo 4-3-3 attack that comes at you in waves led by Bryan Mbeumo who has already notched four league goals this season.
Defensively for Brentford, they've got a lot more questions than answers as they've given up five goals in four games, including two games with two goals against.
Newcastle certainly have the pieces up front to make the Bees pay for their leaky defense, most notably Alexander Isak who has two league goals through the team's first four games.
If we look at the history between the two sides, this fixture is generally a high-scoring one with both teams finding the back of the net in three of the last four games.
With both teams desperate to pick up three points, and boasting defenses that simply can't keep teams out, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair with both teams finding the back of the net. Over 2.5 goals is juiced to -145, so I'll pivot to both teams to score at a cheaper price.
My best bet: Both teams to score (-126 at TonyBet)
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Newcastle vs Brentford same-game parlay
As always, I start my same game parlay with my best bet and build around it. I fully expect both teams to find the back of the net in this game for the reasons mentioned above. Both teams have shown the ability to score which in turn will give these leaky defenses trouble.
From there I'm going with Brentford's main man Mbeumo to register a single shot on target. He's got four league goals in four league matches this season, so he's in form, and Newcastle don't appear to have an answer for anyone right now defensively.
Finally, I'm concluding my same game parlay with a double chance bet that sees the final result end in a Newcastle or Brentford win. I do not believe this game will end in a draw as both teams will be confident in their ability to nab all three points. Dating back to 2016, the teams have only had one draw in seven head-to-head meetings. That's enough to make me believe the draw is the unlikeliest outcome.
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Newcastle vs Brentford side and Over/Under analysis
If we are looking at this game from a win, lose, or draw point of view, I believe that the oddsmakers are spot on in making Newcastle -180 favorites. This implies a 64.2% chance of winning the game, and I believe they are in fact the right side in this contest.
They'll need to pick up the pieces of a terrible two weeks, but the international break did come at the right time. They have a healthy squad entering this Matchweek 5 clash, and at home, the home support should be enough to get them over the line.
As for the total, it's juiced upwards of -145 on the Over 2.5 goals. I would side with the over given the history of the two clubs head-to-head and more so, the recent defensive form both teams have shown over the first four matches of the season.
Newcastle vs Brentford game info
|Location:||St. James Park' Stadium, City, England|
|Date:||Saturday, September 16, 2023|
|Time:||12:30 p.m. ET|
|Weather:||Light rain with temperatures in the mid-teens.|
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Newcastle vs Brentford key injuries
Newcastle: Sandro Tonali (Out), Joe Wilock (Out), Miguel Almiron (Questionable), Elliot Anderson (Questionable).
Brentford: Ivan Toney (Out), Mikkel Damsgaard (Out), Josh Dasilva (Out), Shandon Baptiste (Out).
Newcastle vs Brentford recent league form
|Teams||Recent Premier League Form|