My Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction backs the Reds to win a high-scoring Carabao Cup clash at Anfield as both teams prepare to rotate their squads for Wednesday's fourth-round showdown.
Liverpool are 42% favorites to win in 90 minutes, with Chelsea at 34% and the draw at 26%. I'm also backing Over 2.5 goals as both teams look to capitalize on potentially makeshift defenses.
Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on Paramount+ on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Read on for my League Cup picks, and check out more of our free picks.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding market probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Liverpool vs Chelsea predictions
My Liverpool vs Chelsea top pick: Liverpool to win (42% probability)
Both Liverpool and Chelsea have approached this competition as a chance to rest players so far, starting a mix of regulars, benchwarmers, and youngsters. For Liverpool, that could mean an attack built around speed, dribbling, and direct play, with Rio Ngumoha and Bradley Barcola threatening from wide areas.
Liverpool's pace could either push Chelsea's wingbacks deeper, nullifying their attacking threat, or allow Barcola and Ngumoha to get in behind and attack the central defenders directly. Alexander Isak would also provide a dangerous central target for their deliveries if he features.
Ngumoha is averaging close to three successful dribbles per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, while Barcola offers game-breaking speed. Both can create mismatches against a rotated Chelsea defense.
My Liverpool vs Chelsea Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (65% probability)
With both teams likely to use backup goalkeepers and rotate their defenses, a lack of chemistry could push this match toward goals.
While Liverpool's attack is built around speed and dribbling, Chelsea's game plan could see overlapping wingbacks creating numerical advantages in the final third. That would allow Estêvão and Morgan Rogers to use their trickery to find space and shoot or feed the experienced Danny Welbeck.
In the third round, Liverpool progressed with a 3-1 win over Spurs, while Chelsea put six past Leeds but conceded three times. Those two matches featured a combined 63 shots, so goals could be on the menu again.
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Liverpool vs Chelsea combo
Liverpool to win
Both teams to score
Over 3.5
I'm doubling down on this being a high-scoring game by targeting Over 3.5 goals, with both teams also likely to get on the scoresheet. Both sides have dangerous attacking players in transition, while rotated defenses could leave plenty of space to exploit.
Liverpool vs Chelsea odds
Liverpool
ChelseaMarket probabilities courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Liverpool vs Chelsea
| Location | Anfield, Liverpool, England |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
Liverpool vs Chelsea key injuries
Liverpool: Hugo Ekitiké (Out), Dominik Szoboszlai (Out), Giovanni Leoni (Out), Jeremie Frimpong (Out), Conor Bradley (Out), Florian Wirtz (Questionable), Víctor Muñoz (Questionable).
Chelsea: Emiliano Martínez (Out), João Pedro (Out), Emmanuel Emegha (Out), Reece James (Out), Jamie Gittens (Out), Cole Palmer (Suspended), Pep Chavarría (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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