The two best teams in Europe will fight for one spot in the Champions League semifinals when they meet at the Etihad Stadium today.
Manchester City is nearly at full health, and fighting a war on two fronts. They’ll look to eliminate Real Madrid from the competition for the second time in as many seasons, while Los Blancos will attempt to stay unbeaten on the season against teams not named Atletico Madrid.
Our free betting picks for Manchester City vs. Real Madrid on Wednesday, April 17 shows you how to make money from what should be an enthralling match.
Man City vs Real Madrid best odds
Man City vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
If Tuesday’s second legs in the Champions League quarter-finals were anything to go by, we are in for a treat with this fixture. The goals were flying in left and right as all four teams vied for their spot in the next round.
Then again, we don’t even really need to look any further than the history between these two clubs. They’ve met seven times in this competition since the start of the 2020-21 campaign, with the fixtures featuring a combined 29 goals. Six of those seven matches have seen at least three goals scored, including the 3-3 draw in the first leg.
But more importantly, Manchester City have walked away victorious in four of those seven fixtures, drawing twice and losing just once. That includes winning each of the three legs played at the Etihad Stadium.
Last year the Citizens won 4-0 to knock Real Madrid out of the competition, a season after a 4-3 win wasn’t enough to advance. This year, they know a victory of any kind puts them into the final four, and I’m backing them to do just that in another high-scoring affair.
That’s not to say that Real Madrid have no shot. They’ve lost only twice all year, and both defeats came to their cross-city rivals. They’re unbeaten in their last 15, including seven straight on the road.
And if Madrid were at full strength, I’d be backing them to get a result here and end City’s home run of 20 unbeaten. However, they’ll be missing Aurelien Tchouameni through suspension and Eder Militao is still not fully fit. That means Erling Haaland will be able to find himself matched up at times with Nacho Fernandez, a defender giving up height and pace.
At the other end, Real Madrid forwards Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo will find themselves dealing with a stronger back line than they faced in the first leg, particularly Kyle Walker and Ederson. That’s going to make it tougher for them to utilize the space behind City’s midfield when they turn their opponents over.
But perhaps most importantly, they’ll have Kevin De Bruyne back in midfield. In his last six starts, KDB has two goals and six assists, and he’s registered 35 shot-creating actions in his last five.
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 31 Champions League matches at home, with 29 of those being wins. The two draws came in matches where they’d already clinched advancement and rotated their side. And they’ve scored 40 goals by themselves in their last 11 home fixtures in the tournament.
Real Madrid will likely score, but City will score more. Take advantage of the combo play at TonyBet while it’s still above even odds.
My best bet: Manchester City and Over 2.5 (+114 at TonyBet)
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Man City vs Real Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Man City moneyline
Over 2.5
Phil Foden 3+ shots
Rodrygo 1+ shots on target
In his last five outings for Real Madrid, Rodrygo has attempted a total of 10 shots. Nine of those have been on target. He’s notched multiple shots on goal in each match, including two against City in the first leg. We’ll back him to get at least one here.
For the Citizens, it’s been “fire at will” for Phil Foden. He’s attempted 3+ shots in 10 of his last 12 matches for the club, including three in the first leg. I like him to reach that threshold again.
I strongly recommend playing this SGP at FanDuel, as their price of +578 easily clears the next-best payout of +450 at bet365.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Man City vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
- Manchester City are favored on the 3-way line at -152, while the draw is as high as +330, and Real Madrid priced at +400.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 27 matches and their last 20 at home.
- The total has moved to 3.0 goals, with the Over favored at -125.
- There have been 3+ goals in seven of the last eight meetings between these clubs.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Man City vs Real Madrid game info
| Location: | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 17, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | Cool but dry playing conditions. |
Man City vs Real Madrid key injuries
Man City: John Stones D (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois GK (Out), David Alaba D (Out), Aurelien Tchouameni M (Out), Eder Militao D (Questionable).
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