Man City vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Haaland & Co. Outscore the Gunners

On Friday, FA Cup action brings us a much-anticipated clash between two Premier League heavyweights at Etihad Stadium. Read more to find out which team we're siding with in our Man City vs. Arsenal betting picks.

Last Updated: Jan 25, 2023 7:21 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Erling Haaland Manchester City FA Cup
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The FA Cup returns this weekend, and we’re in for an incredible Friday treat with Manchester City hosting Arsenal under the lights at the Etihad. These two teams are fighting for the league title, and this game gives them a chance to secure their spot in the next round of the competition.

Who will come out on top of this meeting on Friday? Find out in our Man City vs. Arsenal picks and predictions for January 27.

Man City vs Arsenal odds

Man City Arsenal
-138 Moneyline +333
+320 Draw +320
Over 2.5 (-150) Total Under 2.5 (+120)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on January 25, 2023.

Man City vs Arsenal picks and predictions

The FA Cup is the biggest and most celebrated domestic cup competition in the world game, and on Friday, we’re being treated to an incredible matchup between the two best teams in England.

The game takes place under the floodlights, with an evening kickoff in Manchester. With Man City and Arsenal currently in a battle to win the Premier League title, there is another added layer to this exciting matchup.

Not only is a spot in the next round up for grabs, but with a win, each side has the opportunity to put an element of mental doubt into the opposition’s minds.

When I look at these two teams, I still think that it’s Manchester City who have the most complete lineup. However, at odds of -135, they don’t offer a value bet, so I’ll look for another way to put my money on Guardiola’s men.

Both Man City and Arsenal know all about scoring goals, as they each have the most prolific attacks in the league. This game feels like an irrepressible force meeting an immovable object, with Man City having netted at least one goal in every home game played this season. Even more impressive is that they’ve scored two or more in nine of 11 matches at the Etihad.

Arsenal have scored in all but one league game all season, and that includes a goal in every single road game. We’ve seen Man City win and both teams score in 45.5% of their games at the Etihad this year, and I’m backing them to do it once more. 

Led by the unstoppable Erling Haaland, Man City are one of the very few teams who have the firepower to outscore Arsenal. Backing them to win and both teams to score is a great way to extract extra value from the sportsbooks.

My best bet: Man City to win and both teams to score (+225 at bet365)

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Man City vs Arsenal side analysis

Both Manchester City and Arsenal will line up in a 4-3-3 in this one, but the personnel is far harder to predict. We all know about Pep Guardiola’s penchant for rotation, but he’s generally very respectful of domestic competitions. Guardiola always tries to play his best side, and against a team like Arsenal, there’s no doubt he will. 

Erling Haaland was substituted after 61 minutes against Wolves, meaning that he should start in this one. I’d expect to see Jack Grealish alongside him and potentially a recall for Phil Foden. We’ll probably see Kyle Walker back on the roster, and backup keeper Stefan Ortega could also start.

Arsenal will play some of their key players (such as Martin Odegaard), although I’d expect cup goalkeeper Matt Turner to come in for Aaron Ramsdale. We could also see new signing Leandro Trossard get his first start, and Emile Smith-Rowe could join him in the attack as well. The English youngster has been seemingly forgotten due to injuries and the brilliance of Arsenal’s attack without him this season.

Elsewhere, you’d expect Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey to play in midfield unless Arteta throws a curveball and selects Oleksandr Zinchenko to start in place of one of the two. 

I’d expect both managers’ teams to showcase around 80% of the regular starters in this one. Ultimately though, it’s Man City who have the best depth. In a game like this, that will be the main factor. 

Man City vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

Given that the best odds for Over 2.5 goals are around -145, it’s clear that this is expected to be high-scoring.

During their domestic campaigns, we’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in 63.2% of Arsenal’s games, although that does drop to 40% when they’re on the road.

Man City’s league games have gone Over 2.5 goals 70% of the time, but that rises to an incredible 90.9% when they’re playing at the Etihad, which shows you just how free-scoring they can be. I think it’s very likely we see three or more balls finding the backing of the net on Friday.

Man City vs Arsenal game info

Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Date: Friday, January 27, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Man City vs Arsenal key injuries

Man City: No key injuries to report. 
Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus STR (Out), Reiss Nelson FWR (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Questionable).

Man City vs Arsenal weather

Temperatures will have dropped below 40 degrees when the game kicks off on Friday night in Manchester. 

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