We are at the business end of the season where every single game really counts and that’s certainly the case for Leeds United vs. Manchester City. Man City have been in a non-stop duel with Liverpool for the Premier League title and can’t even risk dropping a single point.
Meanwhile, Leeds go into Saturday five points clear of the drop and need to pick up points quickly.
Both teams will be fighting for 90 minutes to make sure they meet their objectives, meaning this should be a great game. Don’t miss our Leeds vs. Manchester City tips and predictions.
Leeds United vs Manchester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Leeds United vs Manchester City betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City (-330)
- Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+175)
- Best bet: Manchester City to win 2-0 (+700)
Predictions made on 4/28/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Leeds United vs Manchester City game info
• Location: Elland Road, Leeds, England
• Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock Premium, fuboTV
Leeds United vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
There’ll be very heavy rain and storms when this game kicks off at 5:30 p.m. local time. It’s expected that temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
Injuries
Leeds United: Patrick Bamford STR (Out), Tyler Roberts STR (Out), Adam Forshaw DM (Out), Jamie Shackleton RB (Questionable).
Manchester City: John Stones CB (Out), Benjamin Mendy LB (Out), Kyle Walker RB (Questionable).
Leeds United vs Manchester City predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Saturday’s final Premier League game serves up a huge clash between Leeds United and Manchester City. The hosts head into this weekend just five points clear of safety with both Burnley and Everton also fighting for survival. The visitors have this sandwiched between two Champions League semis but it’s essential that they pick up three points.
Man City’s battle with Liverpool for Premier League glory has been incredible with both teams playing at historically brilliant levels, but the reality is Pep Guardiola’s men only have a one-point lead heading into the weekend. With Liverpool playing Newcastle earlier on Saturday, Man City might actually be two points behind when this game kicks off. Liverpool and Man City are the best two teams on the planet right now and City cannot afford to drop a single point for the remainder of the season or Jurgen Klopp’s men will be in.
Despite being five points clear of the drop, there is still fear for Leeds’ Premier League future. The arrival of Jesse Marsch has steadied the boat but it’s still possible they get caught by Everton and Burnley if the Merseyside team finds some form and Burnley maintains their great run. When these two sides met earlier this season, it was a murder with Man City winning 7-0. While I think they win again, it’ll be a lot closer.
There’s an argument to be made that either Man City or Liverpool will drop unexpected points, which might make the draw (+500) a nice option here, but I’m not too worried. Neither am I concerned that Man City will have one eye on their Champions League's second leg against Real Madrid on Wednesday. This City team is now too experienced and streetwise, not to mention too deep, to make silly mistakes like overlooking their opposition at this crucial stage of the season.
With Kyle Walker likely to be benched again, we’ll probably see Joao Cancelo play at right back with either Nathan Ake or, more likely, Oleksandr Zinchenko on the left side. Ayremic Laporte will continue to partner Ruben Dias. For the front three, we’ll see more ‘Pep roulette’ as he picks any three of Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling to start. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Grealish and Sterling start with Foden potentially rested for Wednesday.
Marsch will send out his Leeds team in his usual 4-2-3-1 with Daniel James leading the line and stretching the defense, leaving spaces for Raphinha, Rodrigo, and Jack Harrison to try and attack City. They’ll need to do their fair share of defensive work and will be expected to track back to help Luke Ayling and Stuart Dallas, who’ll be at fullback.
Leeds haven’t lost since early March, picking up three wins and two draws in that time, including a 0-0 final with Crystal Palace last time out. Marsch will keep his team tight to keep the score as close as possible. In an ideal situation, he’d find Leeds drawing late into the game before trying to snatch a winner.
It’s hard to see anything but a Man City win. They have such quality up and down the roster that they should still pick up three points even if they rest a couple of players.
Prediction: Manchester City (-330 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Sometimes you need to zig when others zag and that’s true in this case where I’ll be taking on the bookmakers and going Under 2.5 goals at +175. We all know about how adept at scoring Man City can be. They’ve been free-flowing all season, but I do think that the number of games and the importance of next week’s Champions League clash will be on their minds.
It’s worth noting that City have kept a clean sheet in six of their past eight games on the road and it’s hard to see Leeds scoring without Patrick Bamford. There have also been Under 2.5 goals in each of Man City’s last three away games in the Premier League and I’m confident that run stretches to four. Two of Leeds' past three games have also seen Under 2.5 goals and it’s clear that Marsch has worked hard to improve the team’s ability at the back.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (+175 at bet365)
Best bet
I’m expecting a low-scoring Man City win with Pep Guardiola’s team having one eye on Wednesday’s second leg Champions League semi against Real Madrid. Leeds are far better defensively than they were in Marcelo Bielsa’s final months, not to mention they are a lot healthier in defense too, so the score will be substantially closer than the 7-0 drubbing from earlier in the season.
An unspectacular 2-0 win for City feels right here, with the team continuing to put pressure on title rivals Liverpool and maintain top spot in the Premier League, while also managing to rest some players and take things at 90% ahead of that huge semi-final. Grab at +700 while you can, the odds will shorten if it is revealed that Pep is sending out a weaker lineup.
Pick: Man City to win 2-0 (+700 at bet365)
