Newcastle vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: High-Flying Sides Collide

The Premier League's two best teams since January 1st — no, seriously — will play at one of England's best venues on Saturday, as Newcastle United host Liverpool at St. James' Park.

Newcastle have been reinvigorated as the club has returned to life under new ownership, with manager Eddie Howe guiding them to 32 points from 15 games in 2022. That mark, made all the more incredible by the club's horrible outlook early in the season, is bested by only Liverpool's 38 points from 14 games. 

Two entertaining sides in great form clash in a famous stadium — don't miss this match or our Premier League picks and predictions for Newcastle United vs. Liverpool, with kickoff set for April 30.  

Newcastle vs Liverpool match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Newcastle vs Liverpool betting tips

• Prediction: Draw (+400)
• Prediction: Over 2.5 (-138)
• Best bet: Alexander-Arnold anytime assist (+200)

Predictions made on 4/28/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Newcastle vs Liverpool game info

• Location: St. James' Park, Newcastle, England
• Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022
• Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN

Newcastle vs Liverpool betting preview

Weather

A cold, cloudy morning Tyneside will bring showers in the afternoon as Newcastle and Liverpool kickoff. Light rain is forecast throughout the match, with temperatures expected to be around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

Injuries

Newcastle: Kieran Trippier RB (Out), Callum Wilson ST (Out), Ryan Fraser AM (Out).
Liverpool: Roberto Firmino ST (Questionable), Curtis Jones CM (Questionable), Kostas Tsimikas LB (Questionable).

Newcastle vs Liverpool predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

When Newcastle United finally won their first game of the season, on December 4th in the 15th matchweek, there wasn't a celebration but rather a warning. No team in Premier League history had avoided relegation after such an awful start and despite the positivity surrounding the club, their bright future looked primed to be delayed by at least 12 months as the Championship beckoned. 

Fast forward five months and Newcastle have done more than survive the threat of relegation, they have thrived. A 2022 that has bested even magnificent Manchester City has vaulted the Magpies to ninth in the table, the highest they've been at this stage of the season since May 2014. New manager Howe has worked wonders, instilling belief in a defeated group of players while actually working to improve them, unlike his predecessor. 

A forward line that has remained fairly unremarkable, due to injuries, a lack of talent, and poor form from talisman Allan Saint-Maximan, has been mitigated by the rest of the team.

Howe sought out and achieved high-level physicality and ability from his midfield, with Joe Willock, Jonjo Shelvey, and Joelinton now complemented by the world-class Bruno Guimaraes, whose match-winning qualities have been proven repeatedly since he arrived in January. That dynamic midfield and stabilized defense have made Newcastle into a difficult out, regardless of the opponent. 

The proof, after a period of acclimatization under Howe, is in the results. Fifteen games in 2022 have seen Newcastle win 10, draw two, and lose three, with a +8 goal difference and an expected goal difference of +5.2. While Newcastle's revival has been incredible, so too has been the way in which Liverpool have matched City blow for blow in an epic title race.

For a brief moment, City were seemingly pulling away but Liverpool have barely put a foot wrong in five months to close the gap to just a single point. In 14 games, Liverpool have won 12 and dropped points in just two draws (against Chelsea and City), scoring 35 and allowing six with an xGD of +18.7. 

Liverpool are an incredible machine and they may yet win an unthinkable quadruple this season. However, Newcastle have nearly equaled Liverpool in the calendar year and the current lift they've been getting at St. James' will make a genuine difference here, as they've won six straight games at home. Howe's presence will be key, too. His new-look midfield has the physicality to hurry what has been a flawless trio for Liverpool in the center of the pitch, and he'll have learned from playing a high line against Spurs in a 5-1 defeat and will leave his defense less exposed against Liverpool's incredible attack. 

At +400 for the draw compared to -275 for a Liverpool win, we're backing the Toon to take a point off Jurgen Klopp's men.  

Prediction: Draw (+400 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

There are many marks of Howe's fantastic job turning Newcastle around but perhaps none are more impressive than the way he's stabilized their defense. In 2021, they set a Premier League record for goals conceded in a calendar year, with 80 allowed, including 18 in Howe's first nine games in charge. They were talent-poor and regressing, due to the inept former manager. 

Good coaching and the sensible additions of Dan Burn at center-back and Matt Targett at left-back (as well as right-back Kieran Trippier for four games) in January have seen Newcastle's defensive record improve massively. They've conceded 13 goals, the third-fewest in the Prem, since January and their xGA of 13.5 would suggest no luck is involved.

They were torn apart for five goals against Spurs at the start of April but there's simply no way Howe will play such a high line again and put his defenders at risk of being similarly exposed. 

That being said... it's still Liverpool. This is a relentless machine with five world-class attackers to pick from for their front three, and they have averaged 2.57 goals and 2.37 xG per game in the Premier League this season. Newcastle effectively holding off Liverpool in a draw should still see the 2.5 goal total go Over, with a hard-fought 2-2 draw well within the realm of possibility. 

I'd elect to avoid the total altogether and instead take both teams to score (-106 at bet365) but the prediction here would be the Over.

Prediction: Over 2.5 (-138 at bet365)

Best bet

Before we get into specifics, let's state the obvious: To get the best creator and passer in world football to record an assist at +200 isn't so shabby. Whether he's standing over a free kick, operating in the half-space, or whipping in a ball from a wide area, nobody can strike the ball with more technique, pace, and precision than Liverpool right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold. 

All Alexander-Arnold has done over the last four seasons is set then reset the Premier League assist record for defenders, recording 12 in 2019, 13 in 2020, and now 12 in 2022 (17 in all competitions) with several weeks still to go to set a new high. The width and creation he provides Liverpool are absolutely vital to the way their front three play and it will wreak havoc on Newcastle on Saturday.

While Newcastle manager Howe has his team pressing higher up and with more intensity than under the previous regime, there is one exception. Left-sided attacker and fan-favorite Allan Saint-Maximin does little work off the ball, so much so that it's typically striker Chris Wood dropping into left midfield in their defensive shape while Saint-Maximin remains up top. 

The lack of pressing from Saint-Maximin (he's in the first percentile among wingers in pressures and tackles) will allow Alexander-Arnold to occupy a position even further forward than usual. With an increased ability to create overloads on the right and constantly have advantageous numbers on that side of the pitch, Alexander-Arnold will be afforded more time on the ball in more dangerous areas.

Then, Alexander-Arnold will do what he does best, finding and delivering a pass nobody else in the world is capable of. As so often happens, that chance will be converted and the English phenom will record yet another assist.  

Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold anytime assist (+200 at FanDuel)

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