LAFC vs Inter Miami Picks and Predictions: LAFC Controls Pace Of the Game

Inter Miami are near panic mode as they try to make one final push for the playoffs, but LAFC won't give them an easy three points. With the hosts playing a methodical style, our MLS picks aren't banking on many corner chances.

Last Updated: Sep 2, 2023 11:21 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Diego Bouanga LAFC MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Inter Miami needs points quickly if they want to climb the table and reach the playoffs, but they’ll find that tough to achieve when they visit LAFC in MLS action on Sunday.

Already being called the most expensive regular-season ticket in MLS history, the black and gold-clad fans are hoping to see their home side pull off another big win this season. So far, LAFC have been victorious at home against St. Louis City, Seattle, Philadelphia, and New England, all of whom are among the top contenders in the MLS Cup odds.

For Inter Miami, Messi’s MLS debut was far from an enjoyable one. They were held scoreless for the first time since he joined the club, and he was denied a goal for the first time as well. They’re still 10 points back of a playoff spot, and with Messi’s looming international break it could be make-or-break time.

Let’s jump in and help you win some money with our LAFC vs. Inter Miami betting picks and predictions for Sunday, September 3. 

LAFC vs Inter Miami best odds

LAFC vs Inter Miami picks and predictions

Ever since Inter Miami’s first match against Nashville in the Leagues Cup final, teams have figured out how to at least slow down Inter Miami. Cincinnati shut them out for over an hour, while the New York Red Bulls frustrated them for very long stretches. 

Teams have figured out that if they can shut off Messi’s service, it forces him to drop deeper to get on the ball. This takes him out of the more dangerous areas — and while he can still make an amazing pass from nearly anywhere — he’s no longer playing with the caliber of player he had at Barcelona.

This was quite evident in the second meeting between Inter Miami and Nashville this week. Despite benching their MVP for a half in Hany Mukhtar along with not having the majority of their first-choice defense on the pitch, Nashville frustrated Inter Miami all night. 

Messi himself was kept off the scoresheet for the first time, as Inter Miami managed just 0.62 xG on the evening. They had just 4 shots on target through 13 attempts while earning only four corners on the night.

The matchup between these two teams sets itself up for a situation similar to what LAFC faced with Nashville, where Messi and Busquets are forced to operate deeper and try to pick their way through traffic to find chances. It leads to poor quality shots or bad-angle efforts from LAFC’s opponents, while LAFC will look to hit them on the break and use their pace in wide areas as Nashville did. 

What this usually leads to are lower corner counts. When one team bunkers and another team has to try to pick through, corner counts tend to go up. But when you have two evenly-matched sides, who will battle in the midfield and get some cleaner looks on goal, you’re more likely to get a shot into the keeper’s arms, a ball in the back of the net, or an effort that simply sails over or around the frame of the goal.

Only three of Inter Miami’s 10 matches with Messi have eclipsed the 9.5 total for corners, and two of those came in the first two matches when Inter Miami were playing wide open and getting hit on the break. This led to quite a few one-on-one situations where shots got saved out over the line.

The hosts are cemented in the playoffs and are in second place in the West. They’re going to sit back and absorb pressure while looking to hit Inter Miami on the break — just like Nashville did in their two meetings with Messi and company.

Those two outings resulted in corner totals of seven and eight, respectively. And I expect that to be the range for this match. LAFC’s last eight matches in MLS play have featured fewer than 10 corners, and I love getting that total at this price for what should be a tactical battle.  

My best bet: Under 9.5 corners (+101 at TonyBet)

Bet on soccer at TonyBet

One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!

 Sign Up Now at  TonyBet

Not available in Ontario.

LAFC vs Inter Miami same-game parlay

Under 10 corners

LAFC double chance

BTTS + Over 2.0 goals

My same-game parlay at DraftKings pairs adds three plays to our best bet. First, I'm taking LAFC to get a result in this match. I’ll discuss more shortly, but they’re an outstanding team at home and possess one of the best attacks Inter Miami have seen. 

That attack is going to help this become a high-scoring affair. I expect both teams to find the back of the net at some point, and will be shocked given the firepower on offer if there are fewer than three goals scored. Pairing all three together in a SGP will net you a +320 return at DraftKings! 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site

LAFC vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis

LAFC come into the match as minus-odds favorites, with a price between -105 and -111 to win on the 3-way line. Miami are second-choice paying as high as +280, while the draw is priced up to +300.

Inter Miami’s road form this season has been poor, losing nine of their 12 matches in league play, but that was also before Messi. They went to NYRB and won 2-0 but this will be a much tougher opponent. 

LAFC have won eight of their 13 home matches in MLS with just two defeats, and have already beaten St. Louis City, New England, and Seattle via clean sheet victories. I don’t think they’ll keep the clean sheet here, but I do like them to win outright.

As for the total of 2.5, it’s juiced to the Over as always with Inter Miami. The best price you’ll get is -158, while the Over 3.0 Asian total is priced at -125. The Under 2.5 is paying +143 for the best mark. 

LAFC’s home matches have been high-scoring affairs, and the absence of Jesus Murillo in defense could help that come through once again. Three of their last four at home have gone Over, as have eight of 13. Their last five in all competitions have seen a combined 24 goals scored.

Inter Miami’s actually seen the Under 2.5 hit in three of their last four matches, with only their fixture against Cincinnati going Over. But that’s the match that most closely resembles this one — an away fixture against a team with plenty of attacking class that can run at pace. Take the Over 3.0 here. 

LAFC vs Inter Miami game info

Location: BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Sunday, September 3, 2023
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV
Weather: Text

Kentucky: Sports betting is coming!

Kentucky sports betting will launch on September 28 — but you can pre-register now!
Check out the best Kentucky sports betting apps, as well as the best Kentucky sportsbook promos!

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

LAFC vs Inter Miami key injuries

LAFC: Diego Palacioa D (Questionable), Jesus Murillo D (Questionable).
Inter Miami: Corentin Jean F (Out), Gregore M (Out), Franco Negri D (Out).

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo