Everton vs Arsenal Predictions and Picks: Gunners Take Care of Business at Goodison Park

Sitting just two points back of first place in the Premier League standings, Arsenal will look for a road win on Sunday when they take on an Everton side that has yet to record a dub. Read more in our Everton vs. Arsenal betting picks.

Last Updated: Sep 15, 2023 7:39 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bukayo Saka Arsenal EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Sunday’s Premier League slate is headlined by Everton taking on Arsenal, and it's a game that both clubs need to win for very different reasons.

For the home side, it’s to grab much-needed points to counter the recent run of terrible form that sees them as relegation candidates. On the other side of the pitch, Arsenal are building upon a strong start and looking to maintain pressure on Man City in the Premier League title race.

It’s going to be a fun game but can Sean Dyche’s team pull off the upset? Don’t miss our Everton vs. Arsenal picks and predictions.

Everton vs Arsenal best odds

Everton vs Arsenal picks and predictions

The Everton vs. Arsenal fixture has a rich history in the Premier League, but currently, there's a significant gap between the two teams. Arsenal sits fifth in the table, just two points behind first-place Manchester City, making them contenders for the Premier League title this season.

In contrast, Everton is struggling, sitting 18th and facing relegation. Only Luton Town and Burnley have had worse starts, with Everton securing just one point so far.

Our main focus is on the spread, and we are backing Arsenal with a -1.5 goal advantage at +140. This seems like an attractive bet considering the performance of both teams this season. Everton has conceded eight goals in four Premier League games, averaging two goals per game, despite facing opponents like Fulham, Aston Villa, Wolves, and Sheffield United — none of which are expected to finish at the top of the Premier League.

Everton's narrow 2-1 win over Doncaster in the EFL Cup is also a cause for concern given the difference in squad quality.

On the other hand, Arsenal has scored eight goals this season, also averaging two goals per game. They have secured wins against Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, and Manchester United, with a 2-2 draw coming against Fulham.

Going into this match, Arsenal are undefeated while Everton has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games and have failed to score at Goodison Park this season. This could be a significant issue when facing Arsenal's attacking prowess, with players like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Martinelli likely to pose a serious threat.

Everton may attempt to make it a physical battle, but their quality may not be enough to keep up with an Arsenal attack that is known for their speed and skill. Moreover, Arsenal boasts a strong defense, making them confident in their ability to shut out an offensively-challenged Everton side.

My best bet: Arsenal -1.5 (+140 at TonyBet)

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Everton vs Arsenal same-game parlay

Arsenal to win by two or more goals

Amadou Onana to get booked

Bukayo Sako Over 0.5 shots on target

We are wagering on Arsenal to secure a victory with a margin of two or more goals. As outlined in our earlier analysis, Arsenal possesses a formidable attacking lineup that can overpower opponents, especially against Everton, who have displayed defensive vulnerabilities.

Next, we're placing a bet on Everton's Belgian midfielder, Amadou Onana, to receive a booking. Onana, a 22-year-old talent and arguably Everton's standout player, is likely destined for a move to a bigger club. He is known for his combative and physical style in the midfield, and he will rely on these attributes to assert control against Arsenal.

Surprisingly, Onana has not received a booking this season, despite committing an average of 1.5 fouls per game. Given the opposition and his playing style, the likelihood of him receiving a yellow card is very much in play on Sunday. In the previous season, Onana racked up nine yellow cards in 33 games, emphasizing his susceptibility to bookings.

Lastly, we are betting on Bukayo Saka to register a shot on target. Saka, a 22-year-old rising star, has established himself as one of the premier right-sided forwards globally and is undoubtedly the standout player in Arsenal's squad. He has already notched two goals in four games and maintains an average of three shots per game in the Premier League.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Everton vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis

Arsenal clearly outclass Everton in almost every aspect of the game, with the only position in question being the goalkeeper.

Consequently, it's no surprise that Arsenal is heavily favored at -204 to win this match. This implies a 67.1% chance of an Arsenal victory, but in reality, it could be closer to 75% or even 80%. Despite the favorable odds, betting on Arsenal at -204 may require a substantial stake to yield a worthwhile return.

On the other hand, I would strongly advise against betting on Everton (+485) or a draw (+350) as the odds don't seem to justify the risk.

Expecting goals in this match is a reasonable assumption, as evidenced by Over 2.5 goals being priced at -161 and Under 2.5 goals at +130. However, given that I anticipate only Arsenal scoring, I would consider taking Arsenal Over 2.5 goals at +175.

Everton vs Arsenal game info

Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool, England
Date: Sunday, September 17, 2023
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: Network
Weather: Raining at kickoff with temperatures in the mid-60s.

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Everton vs Arsenal key injuries

Everton: Seamus Coleman RB (Out), Dele Alli CM (Out), Jack Harrison MID (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin STR (Questionable), Andre Gomes CM (Questionable), Michael Keane CB (Questionable).

Arsenal: Jurrien Timber DEF (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), Thomas Partey RB (Out).

Everton vs Arsenal recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Everton Everton D-L-L-L
Arsenal Arsenal W-D-W-W

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