The Romanian national team returns to the main stage of football after missing out on the last two World Cups and Euro 2020. In their first match at Euro 2024, they'll face Ukraine in a Group E fixture on Monday, June 17.
Will Romania be able to harm the logical challenger for the second position in the group? Read on for my Romania vs. Ukraine prediction and Euro 2024 picks for this match.
Romania vs Ukraine picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Romania to win or draw (-118 at Betano)
My analysis
Romania has won six matches and drawn four in the qualifying campaign for Euro 2024 odds. Their best outings in the preliminary round came in the last two games, winning 2-1 at Israel and 1-0 vs. Switzerland. Edward Iordănescu's team celebrated in front of a crowd of 50,000 and was hoping to surf on this fantastic wave of energy until the Euros. But a reality check came as Romania didn't win any of their four friendlies in 2024, most notably being held at home by Liechtenstein 0-0 as they were preparing to leave for Germany.
Unlike Romania, Ukraine left it until the last moment to clinch Euro 2024 access. Ukraine finished third in their Euro 2024 qualifying group, behind England and Italy. Had it not been for the Nations League path, they wouldn't be at this tournament. The Ukrainians found it tough to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina (2-1) and then Iceland (2-1), coming from one behind in both games to win the playoffs in March.
Serhiy Rebrov's side played three friendlies this month. The 0-0 draw in front of Germany is valuable, while the 3-1 loss against Poland is troubling. This Ukrainian side has enough individual quality to make even the big names feel in danger, but is Ukraine consistent enough? That's the biggest problem a young but inexperienced team will always need to face.
Even though they only won once in 16 games at the Euros (3-2 vs. England at Euro 2000), Romania comes to Germany unbeaten in 12 competitive matches (seven wins, five draws), and they have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five official clashes. But if you look at the fact that there have been 23 goals scored between Romania and Ukraine in their previous five confrontations, an average of 4.6 goals per match, you might want to avoid betting on Romania not conceding.
Ukraine have won only two of their last nine Euro 2020 group matches (2-7 SU) and have not kept a clean sheet in their previous 11 Euro games. They found the net in just two of their last eight Euro group-stage encounters. Ukraine are competing in their fourth consecutive Euro tournament following their debut as hosts in 2012. At Euro 2020, they reached the knockout round for the first time and were eliminated by England in the quarterfinals.
At Euro 2020, Ukraine beat North Macedonia 2-1 and lost to Austria 1-0. Ukraine have won two and drawn one of their last three matches against Romania.
Ukraine's skilled squad will have a tough test to face when they play Romania, a well-organized unit with counters full of venom to their opponents. A big-match atmosphere is awaited in the stands too, with tens of thousands of Romanians traveling to support their team. Ukraine will also be well-supported, considering many of the refugees who have fled their war-torn country have settled in Germany, but I ultimately believe Romania will pick up at least a point on Monday.
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Romania vs Ukraine same-game parlay (SGP)
Romania to win or draw
Under 1.5 goals 1H
Dennis Man anytime goal
Romania will try to apply what they did best throughout the qualifiers against Ukraine.
The goal is to keep it tight at the back and hit on the counter when an opportunity comes. This Romanian side is not the type that would park the bus, but safety inside their box is of primary concern. Even if they feel a weak opponent, they're not accustomed to switching to all-out attack mode.
Ukraine will look to keep the ball and create, but finding space won't be easy. There are strong indications for a tight first half, with more action in the second part of the game. Alongside Denis Drăguș, Dennis Man is one of those who can harm Ukraine's defense the most. Man scored 11 goals and assisted six for Parma, leading them to Serie A promotion. The 25-year-old attacker has been voted best player of the season at the Italian club.
Man is motivated and hungry to have success at the national team level too. He missed a penalty in the test game vs. Bulgaria and manager Iordănescu will use that unpleasant detail to power up Man even more before Romania's Euro 2024 opener.
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Romania vs Ukraine odds
| Romania | Ukraine | |
|---|---|---|
| +315 | Moneyline | +102 |
| Over 2.5 (+118) | Total | Under 2.5 (-143) |
| +245 | Draw | +245 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-13
Romania vs Ukraine game info
| Location: | Munich Football Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date: | Monday, June 17, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX Sports |
| Weather: | 79F, 6 mph winds, 10% PoP |
Not intended for use in MA.
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