Fresh off a major scare in the Round of 16, England lived to fight another day. Now they face Colombia on Saturday with a World Cup semifinal spot up for grabs.
Lauren James’ moment of madness left England on the ropes against Nigeria on Monday. But they overcame that red card, clung on a for 0-0 draw, and held their nerve in the shootout. It wasn’t pretty, but it was a timely reminder of the Lionesses’ resilience.
This will be a landmark occasion for a Colombia team who’ve become one of the best stories of the tournament. They’re making their first World Cup quarterfinal appearance here after doing just enough to squeeze past Jamaica on Tuesday thanks to Catalina Usme’s winner.
Check out our free England vs Colombia picks and predictions ahead of this August 12 matchup.
England vs Colombia odds
|Over 2.5 (+150)
|Under 2.5 (-200)
Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 11, 2023.
England vs Colombia picks and predictions
Neither of these teams were at their best in the last round, as England had to grind through 120 minutes for a goalless draw, while Colombia hung on for a 1-0 win. That may not sound like a recipe for goals on Saturday, but I’m optimistic that we’ll see more scoring chances here.
I’m not envisioning a back-and-forth thriller by any means, but both of these nations have produced enough flashes of attacking quality to suggest a Yes on the BTTS prop is in play. Though the goals have dried up a little for the Colombians, they’ve still scored in three of their four games, including two goals to sink Germany and turn Group H on its head.
Similarly, England were frustrated for long periods by an organized, physical Nigeria gameplan, but they have plenty of forward options to unlock the Colombian defense. After surviving that penalty shootout, it’s reasonable to expect the Lionesses to bounce back with a more efficient performance.
Though Colombia will likely be happy to sit back and soak up pressure, that approach would have to shift if they concede early. When England scored inside 10 minutes against China, the floodgates opened, and forwards Chloe Kelly, Ella Toone and Beth England are more than capable of logging big minutes as Sarina Wiegman tweaks her starting lineup without James.
These BTTS odds have been pumped off by the teams’ Round of 16 struggles, but I see both clubs making their chances count on Saturday.
My best bet: BTTS — Yes (+162 at bet365)
England vs Colombia same-game parlay
The England moneyline comes at a hefty price as a single bet, but I’m adding it to pad the odds on this SGP. Though Wiegman’s team rode their luck against Nigeria in the last round, I expect a sharper performance here from a Lionesses squad that knows how to navigate the knockout rounds.
With James suspended, England will need their other attackers to step up. That starts with striker Alessia Russo, who was on the scoresheet against China in the group stage and has the quality to stretch the Colombian defense. If the Lionesses find the net in Sydney, Russo is the likeliest scorer.
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England vs Colombia spread and Over/Under analysis
As Euro 2022 winners, England have tournament pedigree on their side here. They’ve also reached the semifinals at the last two World Cups, and they’re installed as clear favorites to outlast Colombia in this quarterfinal.
The Lionesses have the squad depth to replace at least some of James’ creative spark while she serves her two-game ban, though it means a little more predictability in the England attack.
The Colombians are +600 underdogs in the Women's World Cup odds at some sportsbooks, and it would count as a big shock if they pulled off a win. That said, they’ve already recorded a stunning 2-1 win over Germany in this tournament, proving they can hold their own against top European teams.
The Over/Under odds lean towards a low-scoring battle. England have only conceded once Down Under — a mere consolation in an easy win over China — and I don’t see this quarterfinal turning into a goal-fest. Each of Colombia’s past two contests has featured just a single goal, while the Lionesses have been kept in check aside from the 6-1 rout against China.
That said, I’m not buying the idea of a true stalemate at Stadium Australia, and I’ve already made the case for the BTTS prop. Looking further back than the previous round, the Colombians began the tournament in more prolific form, scoring twice against Germany and South Korea.
Meanwhile, England’s masterclass against China highlighted the damage they can do when they’re in the mood, and both teams have found the net in three of their four games at the tournament.
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England vs Colombia game info
|Stadium Australia, Sydney, Australia
|Saturday, August 12, 2023
|6:30 a.m. ET
|Mid-50s, rainy and wet conditions.
England vs Colombia key injuries
England: Lauren James (Out — Suspension).