Both Costa Rica and the USA entered the final window in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying with their fates up in the air but both have since answered the call, with their respective paths to Qatar more or less settled.
For Costa Rica, fourth place is all but official, meaning they will face an opponent from Oceania in an inter-continental playoff with a spot at the World Cup on the line. For the USMNT, any of the Top 3 spots are still on the table but the result will remain the same: an automatic berth at the World Cup.
We break down the game and the soccer betting market with our Costa Rica vs. USA picks and predictions, with kickoff on March 30.
Costa Rica vs USA game info
• Location: National Stadium, San Jose, Costa Rica
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Time: 9:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, Peacock
Costa Rica vs USA betting tips
Click on each pick for complete analysis
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Costa Rica vs USA match odds
Costa Rica: +245
USA: +115
Draw: +215
Total: 2.5
Over: +165
Under: -220
Costa Rica vs USA betting preview
Weather
Scattered showers should end by kickoff on Wednesday night for Costa Rica vs. the USA. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 70 degrees Fahrenheit, with humidity around 75%.
Injuries
Costa Rica: None.
USA: None.
Costa Rica vs USA predictions
Side analysis
It was touch and go for the USMNT at times in qualifying but they answered the call in a decisive fashion during this window. A hard-earned 0-0 draw away to Mexico kicked things off and positioned the U.S. very well ahead of their final home game of qualifying. That home match put any remaining fears from 2018 to bed, as the USA picked Panama apart in ruthless fashion, winning 5-1.
On balance, the U.S. have been the second-best team throughout qualifying and their standing reflects as much. They are ahead of Mexico in second on goal difference, six goals up on El Tri, and are second to Canada in both goals and goals conceded. It's been at home, however, where the U.S. have done most of their damage.
The USMNT's record at home in seven qualifying games reads six wins and one draw (to Canada), with 16 goals scored and just three conceded. That's a stark contrast to their road form, where they've won just once, drawn three, and lost twice in six matches, with five goals scored and five conceded. That road form looks worse when considering the win came in the first window, at the start of September, and that they last scored away from home in mid-November.
The USMNT's road performances are a bit foreboding ahead of a game in San Jose against a Costa Rica team that's largely taken care of business at home. Los Ticos have won four of six while drawing to Jamaica and losing to Mexico. Just last Thursday, Costa Rica handed Canada their first loss in qualifying and while Canada were the better team for the final hour of that match, the atmosphere was phenomenal and an aging Costa Rica team quite clearly fed off it. We should expect a similar setting on Thursday.
Between the road form of the U.S., the home form from Costa Rica, and that neither side has anything obvious to play for, a draw is the most likely result.
Prediction: Draw (+215)
Over/Under analysis
If we are picking a draw, then there's an expectation the game will play out the way Costa Rica want — and that means a low-scoring affair. Thursday's hosts have seen an average of just 1.46 goals per 90 in 13 qualifying games, which is far and away the fewest in CONCACAF. Of those 13 games, nine have finished with two goals total or fewer. They are going to slow the game down, stay compact out of possession, and keep things low-scoring.
As mentioned, the U.S.'s attack has been very quiet away from home in recent qualifying games, going the last three windows without scoring on the road. While the USMNT's attacking force is softened away, they remain tight defensively with just five goals conceded (two of which came against Canada).
Everything points to the Under and oddsmakers agree, with the total -220 in that direction. We won't go against it.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-220)
Best bet
Costa Rica's status as +245 underdogs on the three-way moneyline in this game gives us a chance to get some value from a double result pick and we'll do just that.
The USMNT have been far superior to Costa Rica throughout qualifying, and there are certainly questions that could be asked about Los Ticos' worthiness to even finish fourth. However, the contrast between the U.S.'s form on the road and Costa Rica's performances at home is glaring and worth paying attention to here.
Costa Rica have averaged 2.16 points at home in qualifying and their best result is their most recent, the 1-0 win over 10-man Canada. The USMNT, on the other hand, have averaged just 1.0 points away from the United States in qualifying and last scored on the road against an underwhelming Jamaica team in mid-November.
Back Costa Rica to thrive off their home support and get an impressive result for a second time this window.
Pick: Double result - Costa Rica or draw (-150)
