Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Picks and Predictions: Offensive Frustrations Continue For Chelsea

Dortmund enter the second leg with a one-goal lead over Chelsea, but the leg flips back to England for game two. However, even on their home field, our Champions League betting picks anticipate Chelsea to score.

Last Updated: Mar 7, 2023 12:03 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Borussia Dortmund Chelsea Champions League
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It’s the business end of the Champions League and this Tuesday we see the first of the second leg of ties, with Chelsea vs. Dortmund as the headline event. Dortmund won the first leg at Signal Iduna Park and they come to Stamford Bridge with a lead to hold.

Can injury-ridden Chelsea secure passage to the quarterfinals, or will Dortmund seal their spot in the next round?. Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Dortmund picks and predictions.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund best odds

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions

Last week’s game finished with the Germans winning the first leg 1-0, in part to some great goalkeeping, and now they look to hold that aggregate lead and seal a place in the quarterfinals. My best bet for this game is that we’ll see Under 2.5 goals — and there are a few reasons for this.

Firstly, there’s Chelsea’s struggles in front of goal. They managed to beat Leeds on the weekend, but it was only 1-0 and was Wesley Fofana who sealed the victory with his goal. The club are desperately lacking a striker, a proper number nine.

Patrick Aubameyang has been sidelined by Potter, while Joao Felix is more of a creator. That leaves Kai Havertz as the man who leads the line. Havertz is a great player but he’s better slightly deeper, not playing as a nine. It also causes issues for Chelsea because he’s scored just five goals in 24 Premier League games and only one goal in the Champions League so far.

Dortmund will have Sebastien Haller up front. It’s brilliant to see the Ivorian after his health issues, but he’s only scored one goal since his return in all competitions, with six starts and four sub appearances.

He’s a big bodied striker who brings others into the game but he isn’t a huge goalscorer. Youssoufa Moukoko and Karim Adeyemi — who scored in the first game — are both out injured, which could leave them lacking goal threat.

Chelsea need to overturn the one goal deficit which is bad news because the last time they scored two or more goals in a game was in the final match of 2022.

The truth is that bettors don’t like betting on the Under with goals totals but it’s often the shrewdest move and in this case I’m very confident, despite it being the second leg, which could force goals.

This is a Chelsea team who have routinely struggled to dominate games in recent months and have a tame attack. Facing a team like Dortmund who’ll look to play defensively and hit them on the counter will spell bad news for Chelsea. Back Under 2.5 goals, it makes the most sense here.

My best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-105 at DraftKings)

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Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund side analysis

It’s hard to pick a winner in this match but I’d probably lean towards it being a draw if I were forced, either 0-0 or 1-1. This isn’t a vintage Chelsea team but they’re still full of talent. Potter will send his team out in 3-4-3 with three central defenders in Fofana, Chalobah, and Koulibaly, with Chilwell, and fitness pending, Reece James. 

Fernandez and Kovacic will be in the middle after performing well against Leeds and will need to match, if not improve, upon that. As mentioned above, we’ll almost certainly see Havertz leading the line, supported by Raheem Sterling and Joao Felix. None of the front three are prolific goalscorers, but they’ll need to find goals if Chelsea are to win.

Dortmund will continue with the great Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck both at the heart of the defense, a duo that’s been successful this season. They gave up just five goals in the Champions League group stages and 28 goals in the Bundesliga — the third least. 

The team will run through Jude Bellingham, with the young Englishman becoming the man for all occasions, exceptional across the pitch and a true leader despite his year. In terms of goals he’ll look to add to the 10 he’s scored in all competitions this year, with Marco Reus and Julian Brandt also integral to Dortmund's hopes of a goal.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Over/Under analysis

As mentioned above, we’ll be backing Under 2.5 goals and it’s something that the underlying statistics also back up as the best choice. 

We’ve spoken about how badly Chelsea have performed in front of goal, but the opposite is true at the back, where Potter’s team have generally been good, especially as they’ve welcome back players from injury.

There have been Under 2.5 goals in 66.7% of Chelsea’s games at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, with the last eight all going Under 2.5 goals, a streak going back to the start of October.

Dortmund have scored a lot of goals this season and home games in particular have seen the Over land very often. but on the road it’s been a different situation, with the German team seeing things exactly 50-50 in terms of total goals when on the road this season, with their past three all going Under 2.5.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, West London, England
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries

Chelsea: Armando Broja ST (Out), Thiago Silva CB (Out), N’Golo Kante CM (Out), Edouard Mendy GK (Out), Cesar Azpilicueta FB (Out), Mason Mount CM (Out), Christian Pulisic FWR (Quesitonable), Reece James RB (Questionable).
Borussia Dortmund: Karim Adeyemi ST (Out), Youssoufa Moukoko ST (Out), Donyell Malen FWR (Out), Julian Ryerson RB (Out).

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund weather

Temperatures will be in the low 40s and there’s a chance we could see rain and adverse conditions.

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