Chelsea vs AC Milan Picks and Predictions: Both Sides Find the Scoreboard in Tight Matchup

This game is a must win for Chelsea if they want to advance from the group stage, but that may be easier said than done. Our Champions League betting picks are expecting both teams to find the net — read more to find out why.

Last Updated: Oct 3, 2022 8:10 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Raheem Sterling Chelsea Champions League
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Wednesday will see the midway point of the Champions League group stage, and qualification to the knockout stage could well be on the line for Chelsea as they host AC Milan at Stamford Bridge. The Blues sit bottom of Group E with just one point through two matches, and a loss to the group leaders would see them fall potentially five points out of a qualifying spot with three matches to play.

The Rossoneri visit in solid form, but a laundry list of injuries will impact Stefano Pioli’s lineup selections and will severely impact their defensive ability. Can Milan get a very rare victory on England soil? Let's discuss our Chelsea vs AC Milan picks and predictions for Wednesday, October 5.

Chelsea vs AC Milan odds

Chelsea vs AC Milan picks and predictions

Chelsea turns its sights towards Champions League, where the Blues sit bottom of the table through two matchdays. A stunning 1-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb saw manager Thomas Tuchel sacked. That was followed by a 1-1 draw against RB Salzburg in Potter’s first match in charge. Chelsea knows a result against AC Milan is crucial if the side is to advance from the group stage.

Milan are riddled with injuries at the moment, especially at the back. Keeper Mike Maignan, who was among the best in all of Europe a season ago in xG differential, is out with an injury. He’s joined by defender Theo Hernandez, with whom he watched from the sidelines this week and they both witnessed the removal of defenders Simon Kjaer and Davide Calabria — also due to injury. 

They also were treated to a thrilling conclusion on Saturday as Milan defeated Empoli away by a score of 3-1. The win came despite Milan having to make two changes in the first half due to injury, and now leaves Pioli with a true injury crisis heading into this match. 

Milan have been held off the scoresheet just once over their last 15 matches stretching back to April of this season, and have found the back of the net in seven of eight Champions League matches dating back to last season. Both teams have scored in six of those eight matches, as well. On the other side, Chelsea have scored in seven of their nine matches in all competitions this season.

Milan have failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight matches, while Chelsea hasn’t seen their opponents go scoreless in eight on the trot. With the injuries to key players in the back line and midfield for both teams, it’s highly unlikely either side will keep the other from scoring on Wednesday. Look for both teams to find the back of the net in what should be a cagey affair.

My best bet: Both teams to score (-120 at DraftKings)

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Chelsea vs AC Milan side analysis

Chelsea are strong favorites at home in this matchup, brought on by a few different reasons. One is their home form this campaign, having yet to taste defeat at Stamford Bridge in four matches across all competitions. The club has won twice and drawn twice in that span. Milan’s injury woes are another big reason, especially the loss of Hernandez with whom Leao links up to terrorize defenses. 

In five away matches this season, Milan have won twice and drawn three others. They’ve won two straight away from home in Serie A, but drew 1-1 in their only away Champions League match this campaign. 

If you feel Milan has a chance to get a result, there is solid value in this fixture through the double chance with Milan getting plus-odds for a win or draw. However, just once has Milan taken victory in their last 20 matches away from home against Premier League sides in European play — and that was 17 years ago. 

Chelsea vs AC Milan Over/Under analysis

The books view this one as properly poised on the total of 2.5 goals, with the Over having slightly more juice than the Under. Part of this is due to the uncertainty surrounding both teams. While Chelsea have struggled at times to find goals, they’ve scored twice in three of their four home matches in all competitions this season.

It’s also important to remember we’ve only seen two matches under Potter, so it remains to be seen if the attacking returns will increase with him at the helm.

Conversely, the absence of Hernandez takes away much of Milan’s two-headed threat down the left, with him and Leao terrorizing defenses over the past calendar year. That said, the Rossoneri have continued to find ways to score goals, as they’ve failed to score on the road just once in five matches this season.

Three of Chelsea’s four home matches this season have seen three or more goals scored, and Milan’s last two away matches have seen that number hit. But in four combined Champions League matches so far in 2022, just one has seen three or more goals scored. 

Chelsea vs AC Milan game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
Date: Wednesday, October 5, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

Chelsea vs AC Milan key injuries

Chelsea: Marc Cucurella D (Out), Edouard Mendy GK (Out), N’Golo Kante M (Out).
AC Milan: Theo Hernandez LB (Out), Mike Maignan GK (Out), Simon Kjaer D (Out). 

Chelsea vs AC Milan weather

It will be a chilly evening in London, with temperatures at kickoff dipping into the upper 40s after kickoff. There is a small chance of rain expected prior to kickoff, but it should be cleared out by kickoff. Wind could play a factor though, with gusts of up to 30 mph anticipated. 

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