The Champions League kicks off this week with 18 matches spread across Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, giving us plenty of opportunities in the three-way moneyline market.
My Champions League moneyline picks for Matchday 1 include a mix of favorites, home underdogs, and a few draws where I think the market could be overlooking how evenly matched these teams are.
Read on for all your free betting picks for this week's soccer slate.
Jump to: Tuesday picks | Wednesday picks | Thursday picks
Champions League moneyline picks for Tuesday
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
| AEK Athens vs LASK | AEK Athens 55% |
| Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa | Club Brugge 35% |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal | Borussia Dortmund 56% |
| FC Porto vs Manchester City | Manchester City 57% |
| Lille vs Real Betis | Draw 28% |
| Real Madrid vs Inter Milan | Draw 21% |
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions, one of the best prediction market apps.
AEK Athens vs LASK pick: AEK Athens
DraftKings Predictions probability: 55%
AEK are in excellent form, and I like their chances to carry that momentum into Tuesday's opener. They just hung five goals on Aris, while their attack has enough quality through Varga, Jovic, Majer, and Koita to cause LASK problems. Add in the home-field edge in Athens, and I'm backing AEK to take all three points.
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa pick: Club Brugge
DraftKings Predictions probability: 35%
I'm willing to fade Aston Villa until their attack gives me a reason not to. Villa have opened the Premier League season without a win and have struggled badly in front of goal. Club Brugge are much more comfortable in this type of European home spot, and I think their familiarity and home-field advantage can make the difference.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal pick: Borussia Dortmund
DraftKings Predictions probability: 56%
Villarreal have stumbled out of the gate, while Dortmund enter this match with three straight wins and a much more settled setup under Niko Kovac. BVB do have some defensive absences to work around, but I trust their attack to cover for them. At home, Dortmund should create enough chances to eventually pull away.
FC Porto vs Manchester City pick: Manchester City
DraftKings Predictions probability: 57%
Porto have been nearly perfect to start the season, so I don't expect Manchester City to walk into the Dragao and cruise. Still, this is a major step up in class for the hosts. City are better equipped to control possession, play through pressure, and punish mistakes, which should be enough to grind out a road win.
Lille vs Real Betis pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 28%
This looks like one of the best draw spots on the board. Lille have been tough to beat and have a strong home record against Spanish opposition, while Betis have already shown they can win low-scoring matches against top competition. Neither side needs to force the issue early, and a tight 1-1 result makes plenty of sense.
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 21%
Real Madrid are always going to attract money at home, but their midfield situation makes me nervous here. Camavinga, Guler, and Bernardo Silva are suspended, while Tchouameni is still working his way back. Inter are 3-0-0 and good enough to take advantage. Madrid's attack keeps me off Inter, so I'll take the draw.
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Champions League moneyline picks for Wednesday
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Feyenoord | Barcelona 91% |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Viking FK | VfB Stuttgart 79% |
| Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid | Liverpool 57% |
| Napoli vs Arsenal | Draw 26% |
| Paris Saint-Germain vs Slovan Bratislava | Paris Saint-Germain 94% |
| Sporting CP vs Galatasaray | Sporting CP 53% |
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
Barcelona vs Feyenoord pick: Barcelona
DraftKings Predictions probability: 91%
Barcelona have opened La Liga in dominant fashion and simply have too much attacking quality for Feyenoord to match over 90 minutes. Even with a few absences, Barca can still throw Yamal, Raphinha, Pedri, and plenty of speed at this matchup. Feyenoord are capable, but I don't see them surviving that pressure away from home.
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking FK pick: VfB Stuttgart
DraftKings Predictions probability: 79%
Stuttgart are dealing with a lengthy injury list, but the gap in quality is still too large for me to ignore. They just put four past Koln and should control most of the ball against Viking. The Norwegian side has injury concerns of its own, and I expect Stuttgart's attacking depth to eventually turn that territorial edge into goals.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid pick: Liverpool
DraftKings Predictions probability: 57%
Atletico are exactly the type of opponent that can make Liverpool uncomfortable, especially if they score first and get to defend deeper. Still, Anfield is enough to swing this toward the Reds. Liverpool have more ways to create chances, and I trust their attacking talent to eventually break down Atletico's shape in what should be a tight match.
Napoli vs Arsenal pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 26%
There isn't enough separating these teams for me to back either side outright. Arsenal have the midfield to control long stretches without opening themselves up, while Napoli are difficult to beat at home and have enough attacking quality to punish mistakes. I expect a cautious start and a match where neither side does enough to take all three points.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Slovan Bratislava pick: Paris Saint-Germain
DraftKings Predictions probability: 94%
PSG's domestic results have been ugly, but I'm not overreacting to a three-game sample. The underlying performances have been better than the results, and Slovan Bratislava represent a massive drop in class from what PSG have faced. At home, the defending European champions should dominate possession and chances. This is a spot where I expect a response.
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray pick: Sporting CP
DraftKings Predictions probability: 53%
There isn't a huge talent gap between these teams, which is why home field becomes the deciding factor for me. Galatasaray have enough attacking quality and experience to make Sporting work for it, but Lisbon is a difficult place to play. I trust Sporting's structure a little more, and that should be enough in a close one.
Champions League moneyline picks for Thursday
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahce vs AS Roma | Draw 28% |
| PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk | PSV Eindhoven 68% |
| Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt | Bayern Munich 89% |
| Como vs RB Leipzig | Como 52% |
| Manchester United vs Sabah Baku | Manchester United 86% |
| Slavia Prague vs Lens | Slavia Prague 37% |
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
Fenerbahce vs AS Roma pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 28%
This has draw written all over it. Fenerbahce have loaded up with proven talent and will have a huge home-field advantage in Istanbul, but Roma are too organized and too experienced for me to fade outright. I don't see either side taking many unnecessary risks in the opener, and a 1-1 type of match feels very realistic.
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk pick: PSV Eindhoven
DraftKings Predictions probability: 68%
PSV are one of my favorite moneyline picks on the board. They've been scoring for fun, with 16 goals across their last four wins, and the Philips Stadion gives them another clear advantage. Shakhtar are good enough to make this competitive, but I don't trust them to withstand PSV's tempo and attacking pressure for the full 90 minutes.
Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt pick: Bayern Munich
DraftKings Predictions probability: 89%
There isn't much to handicap here beyond possible Bayern rotation. Even if Vincent Kompany gives a few starters a rest, the talent gap remains enormous. Bodo/Glimt deserve respect for what they've accomplished in Europe, but asking them to handle Bayern at the Allianz is a different challenge entirely. Bayern should control this from start to finish.
Como vs RB Leipzig pick: Como
DraftKings Predictions probability: 52%
I'm buying Como as a team with serious upside. This isn't the little underdog the name might suggest anymore; they have real quality through Nico Paz, Assane Diao, and Martin Baturina, and they just scored four at Genoa. Leipzig have looked vulnerable early, so I'm willing to back Como's home-field edge.
Manchester United vs Sabah Baku pick: Manchester United
DraftKings Predictions probability: 86%
Manchester United don't need to be at their best to win this matchup. Sabah deserve plenty of credit for reaching the Champions League, but the talent gap at Old Trafford is enormous. United can rotate several starters and still field the better player at almost every position. Anything other than a comfortable home win would be a major surprise.
Slavia Prague vs Lens pick: Slavia Prague
DraftKings Predictions probability: 37%
Slavia Prague are one of the home sides I'm willing to trust at a reasonable price. Lens may have a little more individual talent, but playing in Prague is a tough assignment, and Slavia are built to make these matches uncomfortable. I expect a physical, competitive game, with the home-field advantage ultimately pushing Slavia over the line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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