Liverpool’s Anfield stadium is one of the most glorious places to be on a European night, and the atmosphere will be as electric as ever when they host Atletico Madrid this week.
My top Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid predictions favor the EPL outfit, and I also expect an entertaining encounter to produce plenty of scoring opportunities and goals.
Read on for my free betting picks ahead of the Wednesday, Sept. 9 fixture, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
My Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid top pick: Liverpool moneyline (56% probability)
Several stats in this matchup make the hosts a strong moneyline recommendation.
The first is that Liverpool have won 13 of their 16 league-phase games across the past two seasons in this competition.
The second is that their home record is even more formidable: the Reds are a remarkable W17-D0-L1 in their last 18 group-phase fixtures at Anfield.
The third is that Liverpool have won their last six head-to-heads against Spanish opposition in the group phase. The fourth — a linked stat — is that they have won their last three head-to-heads against Atletico Madrid.
Focusing on the here and now, the advantage also lies with the hosts. Liverpool will be upbeat after their 2-0 win at Ipswich Town in the EPL at the weekend. In contrast, Atletico Madrid played poorly and lost 3-0 at Athletic Club in La Liga on Saturday.
Taking all factors into account, I am surprised that the chances of a Liverpool win are rated at only 56%. The probability of a home victory is bigger than that, in my view, making Liverpool a strong selection to secure three points from their first Champions League game of the season.
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Liverpool moneyline
Over 2.5 goals
Five of these teams’ first seven games of the 2026-27 EPL and La Liga seasons have featured three or more goals. The average goals-per-game count across the seven fixtures is 3.29.
When these two teams met in the Champions League at Anfield almost exactly a year ago, on Sept. 17, 2025, we were treated to a five-goal thriller: Liverpool led 2-1 at halftime before going on to win 3-2.
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 63%, while Under 2.5 is at 44%. Of the two, the former is the smarter selection to put into your parlays.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid odds
Liverpool
Atletico MadridOdds courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
How to watch Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
| Location | Anfield, Liverpool, England |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Tapered-off rain showers. |
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Liverpool: Bradley, RB (out); Leoni, CB (out); Ekitike, ST (out); Gomez, CB (doubtful).
Atletico Madrid: Ortiz, LW (suspended); Sorloth, ST (out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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