Top spot in Group C and a place in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals are on the line as Canada and Honduras square off on Tuesday, renewing their feisty rivalry.
The Canadians took care of business on Saturday night in a comfortable 2-0 win over Curacao, who played with 10 men for over 50 minutes. Jonathan David and Cyle Larin grabbed the goals to set up this group-decider at Toronto’s BMO Field.
Honduras should be fresh after a weekend off, and they’re chasing an upset again after beating Canada 2-1 on home turf last summer in an ill-tempered clash. While the teams are locked together on six points, the host's superior goal differential means the Hondurans need all three points here to top Group C.
Get the lowdown on this matchup with our free CONCACAF Nations League betting picks and predictions.
Canada vs Honduras best odds
|Over 2.5 (-118)||Total||Under 2.5 (-104)|
Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 28, 2023.
Canada vs Honduras best bet
Cyle Larin is a goal machine when given regular minutes. He’s proven that repeatedly for Canada (13 goals in their World Cup qualifying campaign) and has taken La Liga by storm since joining Real Valladolid in January. Larin has bagged five goals for the Spanish club since a loan move from Club Brugge, where he was given surprisingly little action.
He’s a man in form now, and that was evident again over the weekend. Larin’s goal against Curacao oozed confidence – a first-time finish calmly guided into the bottom corner – and I see him getting on the scoresheet Tuesday too.
Some of that stems from the quality service that Larin should receive from Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, and Stephen Eustaquio. That trio possesses enough speed and guile to unlock even the stubbornest defenses.
Honduras are a well-drilled team that's conceded one goal or fewer in five of its last six outings, with a 3-0 loss to Argentina the lone exception. So Canada will need to be patient with their build-up play and cash in on the chances they create, which the team failed to do the last time these sides faced off.
This is a game when Canada’s attacking stars need to deliver, and I’ll be taking these odds for Larin to add to his impressive international goal tally on Tuesday.
My best bet: Cyle Larin anytime goal (+145 at FanDuel)
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Canada vs Honduras side analysis
For a team on the rise like Canada, the loss in Honduras surely still lingers, even though they’ve gone on to bigger challenges since then. It was a rare poor CONCACAF performance from John Herdman’s men, and they lost their composure in the final minutes on a water-logged pitch. “It was like trying to put a Formula 1 car on an off-roading track,” as Herdman put it.
The hosts are clear favorites, and BMO Field has been a happy hunting ground for the Canadians over the past few years. They’ve scored 11 goals in their past three games in Toronto, winning each time. Canada went to a back three in Curacao with right-back Alistair Johnston suspended, but a return to a 4-4-2 formation seems likeliest on Tuesday night.
While Honduras need a win to top Group C, the visitors will pack the midfield and bring a game plan to stifle their higher-ranked opponents. Last summer, the Hondurans’ physicality got Canada out of their comfort zone as goals from Kevin Lopez and Kervin Arriaga clinched the points.
The visitors weren’t in Nations League action over the weekend, but Diego Vasquez’s men stayed sharp with a 1-0 exhibition win over El Salvador this past Wednesday. While they aren’t walking into the worst of Toronto’s winter weather, it’ll still be a big adjustment and a temperature drop of roughly 50 degrees from the March weather in Honduras.
Canada vs Honduras Over/Under analysis
The Canadians unquestionably took their foot off the gas in the second half in Curacao. Content with a two-goal lead, they left plenty in the tank for Tuesday and withdrew Davies, Larin, and David to rest up ready for Honduras.
Given the likely defensive-minded approach from Honduras, the both teams to score prop feels a bit risky. But there's some value in the Under on 2.5 total goals in what could well be a cagey contest, especially in the first half.
Prior to the June matchup, the past three meetings between the teams each resulted in two total goals or fewer. I expect that pattern to continue, despite the visitors chasing a victory on Tuesday.
Also, remember that Canada controlled possession (62%) during the meeting last summer. They didn’t make it count that night, but the team heads into this rematch with a strike force firing on all cylinders.
Canada vs Honduras game info
|Location:||BMO Field, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Tuesday, March 28, 2023|
|Time:||8:00 p.m. ET|
Canada vs Honduras key injuries
Canada: Lucas Cavallini ST (Out), Maxime Crepeau GK (Out), Kamal Miller CB (Out), Junior Hoilett FWL (Out)
Honduras: No injuries to report
Canada vs Honduras weather
It’s set to be a dry but chilly night in Toronto, with a light wind and temperatures dipping below 40 depgrees. Still, there’s unlikely to be a repeat of the torrential rain when these teams met in Honduras last June.