Bayern Munich vs Barcelona Picks and Predictions: Lewandowski Takes on Familiar Faces

Robert Lewandowski returns to Munich to face his old team as a member of La Liga's Barcelona. While Bayern have held the advantage in this matchup, our betting picks like Lewandowski & Co. to force a draw at worst, leaving us with a strong double chance.

Last Updated: Sep 12, 2022 11:19 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Robert Lewandowski Barcelona Champions League
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When the Champions League draw was held a few weeks ago, everyone’s eyes were glued to Group C and the pair of matchups between Bayern Munich and Barcelona. With six trophies between them in the last 17 competitions, the two European giants have long been contenders for the greatest trophy in club football, and their rabid fan bases demand nothing less. 

This year, there are storylines galore entering the first meeting between the German champions and the Spanish powerhouse, including Robert Lewandowski's return against his former team and the rumors regarding Julian Nagelsmann’s job.

There are also plenty of betting angles in a match that is certain to entertain from the opening whistle until the final one. Let’s find your best plays on this epic clash in our Bayern Munich vs Barcelona picks and predictions for Tuesday, September 13. 

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona best odds

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona picks and predictions

The economic soap opera that Barcelona endured this summer feels like a distant memory. After pulling numerous “financial levers” that saw them auction off a quarter of their revenue in multiple areas of the club, they’ve gotten off to a gangbusters start in La Liga. After an opening day 0-0 stunner against Rayo Vallecano — in which they did not have all their new signings available — Barcelona has gone on a tear, winning the next four by a combined score of 15-1. Barcelona has also kept a trio of clean sheets in the process, having conceded just a single goal back in the second match. 

That is a stark contrast to their opponents, with Bayern Munich having suffered three consecutive draws in the Bundesliga. After winning their first three matches and scoring a combined 15 goals in the process, they’ve scored just four over the past three matches. The latest draw was a 2-2 stalemate with VfB Stuttgart on Saturday, in which they conceded a stoppage-time penalty. 

Bayern’s high-flying start came against three teams that currently sit in the bottom half of the table, two of whom presently reside in the relegation zone. Their subsequent three matches have come against clubs in the top half of the table, and their highly-tactical setup under Julian Nagelsmann has seen them struggle to dominate the way they would in years past. 

The free-flowing days of the past have been reined in a bit, with players asked to perform specific duties. It’s led to a significant drop-off in big chances created, with only Thomas Muller and Joshua Kimmich having created more than two so far this season. Their lack of lethal finishing hasn’t helped, either. Only Patrik Schick has missed more big chances this season than Sadio Mane’s six in the Bundesliga, and Leroy Sane has missed four of his own. 

Finishing is one area where the Catalan side is excelling. Their 15 goals are tied with Real Madrid for the most through five matches, led by Robert Lewandowski’s six tallies. Lewandowski also bagged a hat trick in their 5-1 win over Viktoria Plzen in last week’s Champions League fixture. At the back, Jules Kounde has proven to be worth every bit of effort expended to bring him in, as he’s been one of the best defenders in the league thus far. 

Barcelona have a plethora of weapons that Bayern will have to defend against on Tuesday. Raphinha and Ousmane Dembele are terrors on the right, while the healthy Ansu Fati has shown this season why he’s one of the most hyped-up youngsters in Europe. Ferran Torres has also performed well, both assisting and scoring against Plzen within five minutes of entering the match. They also rested numerous starters at the weekend, and are fully fit entering this match.

Bayern have been leaky at the back despite opponents having an average distance per shot of 19.5 yards away from goal. They’re not going to be afforded that luxury against a Barcelona side that will attack from all angles. Lewandowski knows their tactical setup inside and out and having faced many of the players in the side daily in training, he’s going to know where they can be exploited, and he’s going to get plenty of service from the likes of Dembele and Fati. 

I am extremely tempted to give out a Barcelona victory as my Best Bet, especially when you can get it as high as +280 at the moment. Instead, I’ll stick with the safer play and protect against the draw by going with Barcelona to either win or draw. Bayern’s 2-0 win over Inter Milan last week in the Champions League came against a toothless side struggling in Serie A, and nothing they’ve shown defensively makes me believe they’re going to contain Barcelona’s unrelenting attack. Go with the Spanish side to get a result on the road. 

My best bet: Barcelona double chance (-105 at DraftKings)

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Bayern Munich vs Barcelona betting preview

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Side analysis Over/Under analysis Game info Injuries Weather

Side analysis

Bayern have endured three consecutive draws in Bundesliga, including two straight at home. They have scored in every home match this season but have kept just one clean sheet against lowly Wolfsburg. Barcelona have won four consecutive matches in La Liga and five overall across all official competitions. They’ve also kept a clean sheet in three straight La Liga outings. They’ve claimed three straight victories on the road as well. 

Between these two sides, Bayern Munich have won outright in each of the last four meetings in the competition. Barcelona’s last win came back in 2015, a 3-0 victory at home. The Bavarians have also won three straight matches at home in the Champions League against Barcelona. 

Bayern Munich have an xGA of one full goal at home this season in Bundesliga. They’ve also led at halftime in six of their seven official matches this campaign. Barcelona have led at the half in just four of their six official matches this season, but have conceded just twice before the break.

Over/Under analysis

The total in this matchup is high, and for good reason. With a line of 3.5 vs. your typical 2.5, plenty of goals are anticipated in this fixture. Barcelona have scored at least three goals in each of their last five matches, scoring four or more in four of those outings. The average total over those five matches has been just shy of 4.5 goals. 

Meanwhile, Bayern started out hot but have cooled off since. After seeing an average of nearly 4.5 goals per match over their first five, there have been a total of eight goals scored in their last three matches. They’ve also scored two or fewer in their last five fixtures, with a 5-0 win over Viktoria Koln 1904 in the German Cup being the outlier.

If history is an indication of what to expect, the total could go either way. The past two meetings between these sides saw Bayern claim a pair of 3-0 wins, with the two before that — including Bayern’s famous 8-2 win — seeing a total of 15 scored. The last four meetings in Munich have seen two go Over the total and two go Under.

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona game info

Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fubo TV

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona key injuries

Bayern Munich: Bouna Sarr D (Out), Kingsley Coman F (Out).
Barcelona: Sergi Roberto D (Probable).

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona weather

It will be a wonderfully pleasant evening in Munich on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s at kickoff with no rain in the forecast and very little wind.

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