The final pair of first-leg games in the Champions League's Round of 16 will get underway on Wednesday, with Atletico Madrid hosting Manchester United in a clash of styles.
Atletico are a tirelessly working, well-organized team committed to defending and attacking in unison. Man United are a misfit group of stars and overpaid players who have seemingly not been given tactical instructions in several years.
Atletico are the untraditional Spanish heavyweight who have boldly punched above their weight for over a decade. Man United are the English powerhouse of yesteryear, clinging to tradition and past success while the modern game passes by.
Wednesday night in Madrid, those styles will collide and the altered landscape in world soccer proven even further, as our Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United picks and predictions highlight.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United betting tips
Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United game info
• Location: Wanda Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, Spain
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: fuboTV, Paramount+, DAZN
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United betting preview
Weather
Clear skies are forecast in a warm night in Madrid on Wednesday, with no wind and temperatures around 60 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff.
Injuries
Atletico Madrid: Thomas Lemar AM (Questionable), Koke CM (Questionable), Yannick Carrasco AM (Out), Felipe LB (Out).
Manchester United: Eric Bailly CB (Questionable), Edinson Cavani ST (Out).
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
If there is a team to trust over a two-leg tie in a knockout competition, it's Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid. The Argentinian manager has led Atleti to a number of impressive results in Europe, including two finals in the Champions League in 2014 and '16, and a 3-2 extra-time win at Anfield in 2020, which eliminated then-defending champions Liverpool from the competition.
Atleti are favored in the first leg against Manchester United but it hasn't been a flawless season from Simeone's team. In Spain, they are failing in their La Liga title defense as they sit fifth on 42 points, with a per-game points return of 1.68 after winning the title last year having taken 2.26 points per game. In the UCL group stage they were clearly not up to par with eventual group winners Liverpool, as they lost both meetings handily and didn't secure progression until the final matchday.
Yet, Wednesday's hosts rightfully hold favorite status, as a failed title defense is hardly level with the disarray Man United continue to find themselves in. The appointment of interim manager Ralf Rangnick hasn't worked, despite only one loss (and an elimination on penalties) since he took charge. Staples of Rangnick teams, like the high press, are yet to be apparent after three months, while staples of recent Man U teams, such as shambolic defending, remain an issue.
The surface-level numbers put these two teams fairly equal, with Atleti's 1.68 points, 1.80 goals scored, and 1.36 goals allowed per game in the league compared to Man United's 1.76 points, 1.69 goals, and 1.31 goals conceded. So too does the talent in each team, with both able to lean on a handful of central figures. Yet, that doesn't tell the full story.
The issues at Manchester United go well below the surface, to the manager on the touchline, the culture in the squad, and beyond. Atleti aren't without their own issues but the cohesion of the club, manager, and players will never be a question. That has proven to be the difference in Europe previously for the Spanish champions and on Wednesday at the Wanda Metropolitano, it will be yet again.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid (+120)
Over/Under analysis
Though they haven't been without evolution in recent years, any long-time observer of Simeone's Atletico will know the direction this is headed after picking them to win. There's no better team in the world at maintaining defensive organization on the way to a low-scoring result than Atleti.
Simeone will set his team up as usual, with Atleti primed to defend in a low block with two banks of four. Man United will be content to control possession, hopeful of breaking Atleti down whether it's through the incisive passing of Bruno Fernandes, a timely run from Cristiano Ronaldo, or the directness of Jadon Sancho on the ball.
That intention will see Man U commit numbers forward and when the moment strikes for Atleti, as it so frequently does, they will break on the counter and punish their opponent. In defense, they are owed a tremendous amount of faith both for their experience playing in this exact sort of game, and for their numbers this year. They've conceded a La Liga-low 21.6 xGA and just 7.9 xGA in the UCL group stage, despite two meetings with Liverpool's vaunted attack.
While Atletico have been among the highest-scoring teams in Spain this year, with 45 goals third in the league, they have vastly exceeded their expected goals of 34.9 (especially compared to their output in the UCL group stage, which was seven goals from 7.5 xG). To expect them to abandon what they do, in a knockout stage, would be wrong.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-116)
Best bet
Our side pick here is both an endorsement of Atletico Madrid and a fade of Manchester United, so we're doubling down on the Spanish champs at plus-money in our best bet.
This is a Man United team with a dreadful defensive record and the constant intention of outscoring their opponent. That will not happen in Madrid against this Atletico team, certainly not in a knockout tie.
Atletico boasts a goal difference of +11 and an xG difference of +13.3, while Man U's figures read +10 and +3.8. The hosts have proven to be more well-rounded, as good in attack and vastly superior in defense.
In the intense atmosphere of the Wanda Metropolitano, Atletico and Simeone seemingly grow in stature and become an unbeatable force. In those same stages, this Man United team folds, completely unequipped for the biggest moments.
Pick: Atletico Madrid (+120)
