Manchester City may have been involved in a 'game of the season' contender over the weekend but this Wednesday they’re back in Champions League action and travel to Madrid to face Atletico Madrid in a game in which they hold a 1-0 lead.
Can Manchester City get closer to winning their first Champions League or will Diego Simeone’s team scupper their chances? Don’t miss our Atletico Madrid vs. Man City tips and predictions.
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Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid match odds
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City (-125)
- Prediction: Under 2.5 (-125)
- Best bet: Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 cards (-138)
- Best bet: Reinildo, Kondogbia, Carrasco, and De Paul to be booked (+6,000)
Predictions made on 4/11/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid game info
• Location: Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
• Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid betting preview
Weather
Madrid will have been dry all day but by the time this kicks off temperatures will be around 60 degrees with the sun poking through the clouds.
Injuries
Atletico Madrid: Hector Herrera DM (Out), Jose Gimenez CB (Questionable).
Manchester City: Ruben Dias CB (Out), Cole Palmer FW (Out).
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
We get the second instalment of Atletico Madrid vs. Man City at the Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday with Pep Guardiola’s men coming into this Champions League quarter-final with a narrow 1-0 lead.
The first leg was a controversial matchup that, depending on your viewpoint, was either a boring and disgraceful performance by Atletico Madrid or a fascinating defensive chess match from Diego Simeone’s team.
For me, it’s the latter. Atletico Madrid aren’t the most exciting team to watch and certainly don't have the same majestic attack and creativity that Man City can offer but there is something captivating about a Diego Simeone team in a knockout competition.
His anti-football won’t win over neutrals but it can be incredibly effective. Atletico went to Manchester for the first leg with a very clear gameplan, defend, defend, and defend some more — and it nearly worked. A Kevin De Bruyne goal in the 70th minute gave City their win but Atletico left with just 29% possession, less than half of the total of successful passes of Man City, and not a single shot on goal.
Man City’s 1-0 lead means this game will be more open, which will be great for viewers as well as anyone who wants to bet on it. I’d expect Simeone to again focus on defense, keeping the game tight before looking to score in the second half or if any counters appear earlier than that.
Simeone will set his team up in a 3-5-2 with Joao Felix and Antoine Griezmann up top. Felix was poor in the first leg but he’s capable of magic and will be a threat to City. Griezmann doesn’t really get the plaudits he deserves but he’s so hardworking and defends from the front, something that’ll be needed against Guardiola’s team.
Man City might come into this game tired after that incredible 2-2 draw with Liverpool on Sunday but their midfield of Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, and one other will be key to this match. If they can win the physical battle against Geoffrey Kondogbia and Koke, it’ll give City the platform to go on and further their lead. Make no mistake, this will be a seriously physical game with a number of cards and dirty tackles.
Simeone will hope his 3-5-2 will be able to neutralize Man City, with the returning Yannick Carrasco and Marcos Llorente at fullback the key to stopping City’s front three from getting wide and moving in and around the box.
If Atletico Madrid had managed to keep hold of a draw in the first leg of this Champions League tie then I’d be a lot more confident in their chances of progression. The fact they come in with that deficit and will need to attack leads me to bet on Man City.
Atletico’s desperation to score will eventually lead to spaces being formed and nobody in the world can exploit space like a Pep Guardiola team. Expect this fiery encounter to lead to Man City eventually finding the net and sealing their spot in the semi-finals of the Champions League.
Prediction: Manchester City (-125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
We saw how effective Atletico Madrid were defensively in the first leg of this tie and it was a classic performance from the Diego Simeone playbook. Although Atletico needs to score, they’re unlikely to go all-out from kick-off, instead, they’ll try and keep it tight in the first half of the game, ready to take advantage of any City mistakes before really going for it in the second half.
Under 2.5 goals comfortably won in the first leg and it should here. It’s not a lock by any means, given that Atletico will at some point have to go for it, but the signs of it landing once again are all there. There have been Under 2.5 goals in five of Atletico’s past six in the Champions League and Man City come into this having kept three consecutive clean sheets in the competition.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-125 at bet365)
Best bet
There’s one thing we know for certain, Atletico Madrid absolutely loves a yellow card. When they’re trying to get back into a game, they bend the rules to get the ball. When they’re frustrated, they kick out and play dirty. When they have a lead they do anything to stop the opposition. To put it simply, they pick up bookings for fun.
The best bet of this game is Over 2.5 cards for Atletico Madrid at -138. In sports betting there’s rarely a sure thing but with their disciplinary record and the game script it feels very, very likely and should in my view be a lot shorter.
Alongside that, we’re also going to have some fun and put on a very low-stakes BetBuilder/Same-Game Parlay. If we’re confident that we’ll see a number of Atletico Madrid cards then let's pick four players to get them.
First up is Reinildo, the Mozambique defender who has 12 bookings so far this season during his spell at Lille and now Atletico. Reinildo plays on the left side of the center-backs and alongside him, we’ll see Yannick Carrasco at fullback. He’s back from a three-game ban and although he only has five bookings this season in La Liga, I expect that he’ll struggle against City’s pace and guile in the wide positions.
To finish off the bet we’ll also add in Geoffrey Kongdogbia, sitting on 10 bookings for the season and the Argentine, Rodrigo de Paul, who has nine bookings to his name. At odds of +6,000, it’s worth a very low stake.
Pick: Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 cards (-138 at bet365)
Pick: Reinildo, Kondogbia, Carrasco, and De Paul to be booked (+6,000 at bet365)
