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MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 28, 2025. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Cristopher Sanchez logo
Cristopher Sanchez o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Projection 6.66 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Cristopher Sanchez in the 87th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.. Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Cristopher Sanchez checks in at the 80th percentile.. The Minnesota Twins have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carson McCusker, Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Ryan Fitzgerald, James Outman).. Dexter Kelley projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in this game.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #7 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Total Bases
Byron Buxton logo
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Projection 2 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the game's 7th-best home run hitter.. Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park projects as the #6 field in baseball for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of the day.. Byron Buxton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Spread
New York Yankees logo NYY -1.5 (+122)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

We cashed with this play yesterday, and we'll go back right to the well with the hot-hitting New York Yankees. They need to win and hope the Jays slip up in order to steal the division. 

Strikeouts Thrown
Luis Gil logo
Luis Gil u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-122)
Projection 4.9 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Dan Iassogna) calling pitches in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 8th-worst park in MLB for strikeouts.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Luis Gil's fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this season (94.7 mph) below where it was last year (96.7 mph).. Luis Gil has compiled an 8.4% Swinging Strike% this year, placing in the 21st percentile.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Sun, Sep 28 • 3:07 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Outs Recorded
Kevin Gausman logo
Kevin Gausman u17.5 Outs Recorded (+140)
Projection 16.89 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for home runs.. In the league, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.1% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.. Kevin Gausman has been one of the luckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play this year with a .258 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.
Total Bases
Yandy Diaz logo
Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.79 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yandy Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Sun, Sep 28 • 3:15 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jurickson Profar logo
Jurickson Profar u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.96 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Johan Oviedo today.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. logo
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Projection 1.81 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 5th-best hitter in the game.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 7th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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