MLB Picks

Witt boasts a career 12-for-25 record against Twins starter Bailey Ober, with two doubles, two triples, and a home run, and it’s tough to pick against that .480 batting average and 1.320 OPS. He’s seen Ober’s best stuff and jumped all over it.

There’s also Witt Jr.’s five-game hit streak to consider. He started July with 16 hits from his first 10 games, and he’s making a similar surge this month, including four hits in Boston earlier in the week.

The bottom of the Kansas City lineup found some form in the past two games – with five hits from the 7, 8, and 9 holes in both outings – so there should be baserunners for Witt Jr. to work with here.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Noah Cameron is projected to throw 85 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least on the slate.. Clint Vondrak grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be umping today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 7th-worst venue in the majors for strikeouts.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Noah Cameron in today's game.

The Mets are expected to send Frankie Montas to the bump this evening, and that’s another reason to target props for the Milwaukee hitters. Montas drags a 6.68 ERA into this matchup, and he gave up seven runs last weekend in a heavy loss to the San Francisco Giants.

Left-handed bats like Turang have given Montas fits this year. Hitters from that side of the plate have logged a .319 batting average against the New York righty and accounted for 15 of the 23 RBIs he’s allowed.

Turang has chipped in with an extra-base hit in four of his past eight home games, and he could be a difference-maker again tonight at American Family Field.

Among all major league stadiums, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the 13th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Tobias Myers throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage today.

Rea pitches to contact, avoiding free passes (6.2% walk rate) while not racking up many strikeouts (16.9% K rate). The thing is, the contact he allows can be damaging — Rea checks in at the 17th percentile in barrel rate and the 21st percentile in average exit velocity. Those contact quality concerns will only be amplified on a day when the weather favors hitting. Rea’s primary deficiency is against left-handed batters, who are slashing .305/.358/.534 while giving him a 5.66 FIP. One left-handed batter poised to capitalize on this matchup for the Cards is Nootbaar. The outfielder has great underlying metrics (92nd percentile hard-hit rate, 87th percentile chase rate), hits righties well (113 wRC+), and performs better at home (141 wRC+). Nootbaar carries a three-game hitting streak into a Saturday matchup he should exploit.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 16th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Tallying 92.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Erick Fedde ranks in the 81st percentile.. The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez, Derek Hill).. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Sean Murphy (the Braves's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a good pitch framer.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 8th-best venue in MLB for strikeouts.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Erick Fedde will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Drake Baldwin is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP.. The 4th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.

The Phillies swept the Rangers in Philadelphia last season and are on their way to doing it again, but this time in Texas. A 9-1 victory on Friday night set the tone, yet the Phillies are underdogs on Saturday night. It does make some sense as the Rangers are starting Jacob deGrom (10-4, 2.80 ERA) against Jesus Luzardo (10-5, 4.32 ERA) for the Phillies. However, deGrom has allowed five runs in each of his last two outings, and the Rangers are 1-4 in his previous five starts. Meanwhile, Luzardo has allowed a total of three runs on seven hits across 13 innings in his last two starts. On top of that, the Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed starters this season, going 10-20 vs. LHP and 50-37 vs. RHP. On the flip side, the Phillies are 53-29 vs. RHP (13-20 vs. LHP). Take advantage of the Phillies at this underdog price on Saturday night in Texas.

Kyle Schwarber produced the goods and went deep on Friday, so why not ride the wave? The Philadelphia Phillies slugger now has 41 bombs on the year and continues to be in the race for the MLB lead, sitting just below Cal Raleigh.

The veteran has three long balls in his last four games and has already left the yard four times in August. He has a very tough matchup tonight against Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom, but as we know, Schwarber can take the best of the best deep.

He’s only 2-for-16 lifetime against deGrom, but one of those hits was a round-tripper. Also, deGrom, while dominant, has been prone to the long ball in ‘25, giving up 19 in 22 starts. Left-handed hitters have taken him deep 12 times.

Corbin Carroll may be a small guy, but he’s got serious pop in his bat. The outfielder has slugged 24 home runs this year, and he’s on an absolute roll right now, going yard in back-to-back games. Carroll has left the yard four times this month already, and we’re not even in mid-August.

The Arizona Diamondbacks face Colorado Rockies starter Bradley Blalock today, and although Carroll is 0-for-3 lifetime, Blalock is getting lit up. He has an ERA over seven, allowing eight home runs in just nine appearances. Five of those bombs are off the bats of left-handed hitters like Carroll.

Carroll is finding good pitches to hit at the moment, and one mistake from Blalock could be another bomb for the youngster.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Beck in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Jordan Beck is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best park in MLB for RHB batting average.. Jordan Beck will hold the platoon advantage over Eduardo Rodriguez in today's game.. This season, Jordan Beck has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.8 mph compared to last year's 90.2 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best stadium in the league for left-handed home runs.. In MLB, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best stadium in the majors for RHB home runs.. Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.. In MLB, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

Kirk has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season with a .301 batting average, ranking in the 97th percentile in xBA. His eye at the plate is fantastic as well, with just a 9.8% K-rate, which should come in handy against a strikeout pitcher like Snell. The Jays’ catcher is 3-for-4 lifetime against Snell, with all of those hits being singles. In fact, 80% of Kirk’s hits this season have been one-baggers, which is why betting his singles prop specifically presents better value than just his hits market. Additionally, Snell is a fastball thrower with a 45% usage on his four-seamer and typically locates it high in the zone. Kirk has crushed the high fastball this year, sporting a .341 average with a .584 xSLG against that pitch.

Bassitt has earned Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider’s trust to pitch his way through wobbles or jams on the bases, so I don’t see him getting hooked if he gives up some early damage, and the Over on this prop has been a winning ticket in six of his last 10 starts.

Though Bassitt has an impressive record against Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, he’s had a harder time figuring out Miguel Rojas and Teoscar Hernandez – and there’s no easy out in this L.A. batting order. Bassitt could still put together a quality start for Toronto here while nailing this prop.

Seattle does hit for a decent amount of power, however, and despite striking out at a brutal 24.9% clip, its walk rate is at least up at 9.1% over the last two weeks. One interesting note, too, is that while the Mariners’ home run-to-fly ball ratio has certainly been lower at home, it still sits near the top of the leaderboard at 12.7%. The Tampa Bay Rays may be cold at the plate right now, but this team can still hit for a little power – and if not for abysmal plate discipline numbers, it would be looking a lot better. Evans is striking out very few batters, and he’s throwing a lot of hittable strikes – making the call on the Over here an easy one.

As it relates to his home run talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12% up to 28.6%.. Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.6-mph average.

Zack Wheeler is in the midst of another Cy Young-caliber season, boasting a 2.64 ERA and 0.92 WHIP entering Sunday’s matchup in Arlington. With Patrick Corbin surrendering a .314/.402/.504 slash line to Phillies batters, the road team will pull away at Globe Life Field. 

St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray has yielded an .865 OPS to this Cubs lineup, and the Cardinals will face a tough task at the plate against Shota Imanaga. The Japanese southpaw shut them down over five scoreless innings back in late June, allowing just one hit. Back Chicago to grab the road win in this NL Central clash