Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can a guy like Yandy Diaz cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?
My best home run props for Thursday, July 2 certainly hope so.
Best MLB home run props today
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Liam Hicks
Yandy Diaz
Home run pick: Liam Hicks (+546)
Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen has his hands full this evening against a lineup featuring five elite-rated bats. One stands out above the rest in my eyes, and that's Liam Hicks.
Hicks has been seeing the ball extremely well and, with the momentum of the offense behind him, should be in a prime spot all afternoon to do damage.
Hicks covers over 83% of Lorenzen’s pitch mix while carrying an elite rating in Batters-Box’s current season grades. In his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .346 AVG, .538 SLG, and .955 OPS.
Rockies pitching has been tormented by lefties at Coors Field, as opponents are hitting over .350 with a .519 SLG, .409 wOBA, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate. Over Lorenzen’s last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they are producing a 66.7% hard-hit rate and a 55% elevation rate, along with a .375 expected batting average, .514 xSLG, and .337 xwOBA.
For the price, I think it is worth dabbling on Hicks to go yard in Coors.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, MIAM
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+542)
It is Yandy Diaz over Junior Caminero in this spot tonight.
Diaz owns an arsenal coverage greater than 80% against Royals right hander Stephen Kolek, whose arsenal grades more than 50% below league average. The only two above average pitches in his mix are the fastball and sinker. Diaz is hitting .414 against sinkers this season with a 1.066 OPS and a .479 wOBA.
Against fastballs, his expected batting average is still above .300.
The Rays veteran has also been generating an alarming amount of hard contact. In his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching, he owns a 71.4% hard-hit rate while batting .320 with an .840 OPS and a .369 wOBA.
At the current price tag, this feels like a better option than trying to bank on Caminero hitting a home run seven games in a row.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, RAYS
- HR picks: 65-240, +8.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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