Tonight, my MLB strikeout props are looking to back steady, consistent arms while fading a few of the game’s more vulnerable starters.
Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looks to get our weekend started, so here are my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, July 2.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Nathan Eovaldi |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -121 |
 Bryce Miller |
Over 7.5 strikeouts | +121 |
 Randy Vasquez |
Over 3.5 earned runs | +115 |
Strikeout prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (-121)
As I mentioned in my moneyline predictions piece today, I think this is a letdown spot for the Detroit Tigers after coming off a solid series against the walking corpse we refer to as the New York Yankees. They now draw a red-hot Texas Rangers team led by Nathan Eovaldi, who has been striking out hitters at a very high rate.
On the other side, the Tigers have not been striking out a ton, but this is still one of the most inconsistent offenses in baseball. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six bats own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate. Three of those six bats are 30% or worse.
With Eovaldi owning a strikeout rate above 30% over his last three outings, I expect that success to continue tonight. Take this down to -130 if you must.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, DSN
Strikeout prop: Bryce Miller Over 7.5 strikeouts (+121)
Seattle Mariners right hander Bryce Miller has been on a tear lately, posting a near 40% strikeout rate over his last five outings. Tonight, he draws one of the most swing-happy, lowest contact teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels.
The Halos have been one of the worst strikeout teams in the league this season, sitting second-worst in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, while also ranking third-worst in contact rate.
Those numbers have held steady on the road. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six hitters carry at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with three north of 25.4%.
Snagging this prop above +120 feels like a strong price.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SEAM, ABTV
Earned runs prop: Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 earned runs (+115)
Sure, asking any team to go off for four runs in the first five is a lot, but most teams are not the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plus, most teams are not facing a right hander who owns a 10.03 ERA, 7.80 xERA, and 2.40 WHIP over Randy Vasquez's last three starts.
Even going back to his last five outings, the Padres starter has a 7.59 xERA and 2.13 WHIP, while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate.
The Dodgers are scorching-hot at the moment, despite falling to the Athletics last night. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a 131 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .807 OPS, and .167 ISO.
I am already a massive fan of Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy this evening, so why not give me the rest of that lineup?
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
- Prop picks: 251-481, -20.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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