Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can guys like James Wood and Juan Soto cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?
My best home run props and MLB picks for Friday, July 3 certainly hope so
Best MLB home run props today
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Home run pick: James Wood (+274)
Waking up to James Wood's most recent numbers is attention-grabbing. They absolutely scream #DUE. Sure, that term gets thrown around way too loosely in the gambling world, but sometimes it really is true.
In Wood's last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he has been an ice cube, batting just .083 with a .125 SLG and .358 OPS. Bear with me though.
During that stretch, the Washington Nationals slugger has produced a ridiculous 92.3% hard hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate. Generating that much quality contact is bound to come around for the big fella.
This evening, Wood draws Mitch Keller, a pitcher he owns 82% arsenal coverage against. Over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, the Pirates right-hander has allowed a 44.2% hard hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, 2.02 HR/9, and a .650 xSLG.
I typically never check the weather because I believe if they are playing, there is always a chance. Plus, I look at so much data that I trust what I am seeing; go ahead and laugh at my season record, though. However, tonight's game is expected to be in the high 90s. If Wood gets a hold of one, it should go bye-bye.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, SNP
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+326)
I have not been able to get on the right side of Juan Soto this year, but that is not going to stop me from backing him in matchups where I think he can boom.
This evening, he draws Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes, who has a poor matchup rating in Batters-Box's current-season dataset. Holmes grades poorly in matchup ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout rate.
So far this season, Holmes has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 44% hard hit rate and a 63.6% elevation rate. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, opponents own a .574 xSLG and .362 xwOBA while producing a 55% hard hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate.
Holmes has also posted a 2.70 HR/9 during that stretch.
Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Soto has produced a 52.4% hard hit rate and a 9.5% barrel rate while slashing .609 with a 1.042 OPS.
With how well the New York Mets slugger matches up against Holmes' pitch mix, and how poorly those pitches have performed this season, the hard contact should be there. That gives Soto a great chance to leave the yard this evening.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, WPIX
- HR picks: 65-244, +7.15 units
Today’s HR parlay
 James Wood |
Bet Now +5059 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
|
 Juan Soto |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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