USA vs Guinea Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Soccer

The fate of Group A hangs in the balance and will be decided when the United States meet Guinea today.

The United States can advance to the knockout stage with a win, but a draw could still see them through if France defeat New Zealand. But they’ll want to control their own destiny against a Guinean side that needs to win and also have France come through victorious. 

We dive into how this match should play out from a betting perspective in our USA vs Guinea Olympics predictions on Tuesday, July 30 

USA vs Guinea prediction and best bet

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Match prediction
USA moneyline (-200)

My analysis

While I won’t be betting on it given the hefty juice, taking the United States to win is the way to go on the 3-way moneyline. While Guinea can still advance with a very specific set of circumstances, it’s very difficult to see them getting the result here.

Guinea put up a fight against France, with the host nation needing a goal in the final quarter of an hour to get all three points. But France had a similar situation in their opener with the United States, as they needed more than an hour to breach the American defense en route to a 3-0 win.

So far in the competition, Guinea have registered a solitary big chance in each of their two matches. While they managed eight shots on goal against New Zealand, they found the back of the net just once and likely should’ve conceded three goals in their 2-1 loss. Against France, they put only three shots on frame and failed to score despite having two goals wiped away in the first half by VAR. 

Guinea have conceded three or more big chances in both matches, and they’re facing an American side that put four past New Zealand, with eight shots on goal and four big chances created. The Yanks outshot New Zealand 22-9 despite having slightly less possession, as they hurt them repeatedly on the counter-attack. 

The Americans can advance without a win if they get some help, but Guinea must win to keep any hopes alive. They’ll have to take chances, and that will open the door for the more talented US squad to hurt them. The Americans will claim all three points and advance to the knockout stage. 

Right off the bat

My best bet
USA first-half moneyline (+100)

My analysis

In the opening match between the nations, New Zealand capitalized on multiple early mistakes by Guinea to earn a penalty — which they missed wide — and scored just a minute later.

The Guineans looked shaky trying to play out from the back in that match, and they employed a high-pressure style against France, leading to the French hitting them repeatedly on the break. France should’ve led at halftime, even though Guinea were twice denied before the break by video review.

The United States showed they were more than capable of handling a high press against France, and the midfield is one of their strengths. Even though Gianluca Busio came off injured in the first half vs New Zealand and is likely to miss out, the likes of Djordje Mihailovic and Tanner Tessmann are adept at turning against pressure and finding the right pass.

Guinea will be forced to go for it from the opening whistle, but they’ve managed just one goal because they continue to waste opportunities and frequently get caught offside. If they commit more bodies to attack, it will open up spaces for the likes of Paxton Aaronson to get on the ball and dictate the counter-attack.

The United States got an early penalty against New Zealand, and Walker Zimmerman finished from a corner just a few minutes later. Busio’s goal put them ahead 3-0, and it was wave after wave of flying attacks as they got the ball off their opponents.

I expect them to do the same here. The United States can sit back a bit and invite pressure, knowing that Guinea must get a victory. That will lead to a goal or two before the break to lead at halftime. Back the Americans to go into the break ahead on the scoresheet at even money.

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