The Colorado Avalanche are the favorites to complete the home-and-home sweep over the Dallas Stars ahead of their 8:30 p.m. ET puck drop at Ball Arena on Wednesday, Oct. 14.
My top Stars vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks call for the depleted Dallas attack to come up well short with Colorado pulling off a convincing home-ice win tonight.
TOP PICK
Stars vs Avalanche prediction: Avalanche -1.5
The Dallas Stars are in an early-season funk offensively, and heading to Ball Arena in altitude this early in the season isn’t the spot to snap out of it.
Dallas has been limited to just 2.17 goals per game with a middling 2.63 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
It’s an uphill climb with the Colorado Avalanche generating an eighth-ranked 2.96 xGF/60 and pacing the league with 4.83 goals per game.
Additionally, the Avalanche have dominated at Ball Arena with an 83-30-10 record, 55.9 Corsi For percentage, and 54.2 xGF% at 5-on-5 over the past three years.
I recommend Colorado to win by two or more to 37%.
COVERS INTEL: The Dallas Stars offensive attack was already missing Matt Duchene (abdomen), and they'll also be without go-to scorer Wyatt Johnston (illness) again tonight. It's a huge blow, with Johnston and Duchene respectively ranking second and third in points for Dallas over the past two regular seasons.
Stars vs Avalanche combo
A key part of the Avalanche's home dominance has been surrendering the seventh-fewest goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and the ninth-fewest expected goals.
With the Stars struggling to score, this has my attention because Dallas has also played to the Under in all six games so far this season.
Dallas defenseman Miro Heiskanen has also been on the ice for an unsustainably high 106.6 PDO, which includes a 14.3% team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. I expect both metrics to see statistical correction tonight.
Stars vs Avalanche combo
- Avalanche -1.5
- Under 6.5
- Miro Heiskanen 1+ points - No
Stars vs Avalanche player prop: Miro Heiskanen 1+ points - No
Beyond the highlighted case for Heiskanen missing the scoresheet, he’s also recorded 2.04 points per 60 minutes to start the year, up from 1.72 over the previous three seasons.
I expect him to spend most of his minutes matched up against Nathan MacKinnon on Wednesday, too, and the Colorado superstar has a 59.5 CF% and 56.9 xGF% at 5-on-5 on home ice since the start of the 2024-25 campaign.
This Under is in play to 55%.
Stars vs Avalanche goal scorer: Nazem Kadri
It's been a tough start for Avs forward Nazem Kadri.
Despite generating a solid 1.85 expected goals and nine individual high-danger scoring chances, he's still looking for his first goal.
With Kadri skating in a top-six role and looks on the No. 1 power-play unit, I recommend him to score up to 29%.
- Top picks: 19-7, +16.81 units
- Combos: 2-8, -1.08 units
Stars vs Avalanche odds
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- Moneyline: Stars 44% | Avalanche 57%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (45%) | Under 6.5 (56%)
- Spread: Stars +1.5 (67%) | Avalanche -1.5 (34%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Stars vs Avalanche trend
The Colorado Avalanche have covered the puck line in 13 of their last 25 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Stars vs Avalanche
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, Colo. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Stars vs Avalanche latest injuries
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