The wins keep rolling here, and the Puck Props show is stacking profits at 20+ units to date. It's a big slate today with plenty of mispriced opportunities for us to take advantage of again as we try to keep the NHL picks heater going.
I'm going D-man hunting, picking off a pair of assists props from the blue line, and finding the best way to approach the Vegas Golden Knights moneyline vs. a very bad Calgary Flames team.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Thursday, October 15.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Seth Jones Over 0.5 assists |
42% |
 Owen Power Over 0.5 assists |
37% |
 Golden Knights ML + Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists |
47% |
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Pick #1: Seth Jones Over 0.5 assists
The Florida Panthers power play has gone nuclear, scoring six goals in its last two games, including four against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday. Seth Jones has six helpers over those two games, four of them coming on the man advantage. He's playing 23-plus minutes per game and gets arguably the best offensive matchup in hockey.
The Vancouver Canucks have the league's worst penalty kill at 57.1% and are allowing the second-most goals per game, at 4.75. Jones shouldn't be priced at 50% for a point — he should be closer to 60% — but I'm getting greedy and taking the assist since he's not a shoot-first D-man.
- Matchup: Canucks vs. Panthers
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
- TV: SNP
Pick #2: Owen Power Over 0.5 assists
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 30th in expected goals against per 60 minutes at all strengths, and Owen Power is playing big minutes with a PP1 role now that Rasmus Dahlin is sidelined. Buffalo Sabres coach Lindy Ruff said Dahlin was doubtful for today's game, meaning Power should get his 26-plus minutes and have a chance to add to his six assists.
This should be priced at 46%, right around where Dahlin's assist prop was priced. For context, Dahlin's point prop was priced at 63%, while Power's is just 44% today. That's too big a gap for essentially the same role. I'll take Ruff at his word that Dahlin is unlikely to play and get ahead of a prop that's bound to move.
- Matchup: Sabres vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
- TV: TSN4
Pick #3: Golden Knights ML + Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists
Mitch Marner's assist prop still isn't priced correctly. It's priced at 56% today but should be closer to 61%. He's recorded an assist in four straight games, and the Vegas Golden Knights are one of just two teams ranked in the Top 5 in both expected goals for and against per 60 at all strengths.
The Calgary Flames are allowing the most goals per game at 4.83, despite a respectable 85% penalty kill. There are bad NHL teams, and then there are the Flames. The Knights should flirt with five goals tonight, and keeping Marner off the scoresheet isn't happening.
This is the best way to target the Golden Knights moneyline tonight. Adding a Brett Howden and William Karlsson point with that is a juicy +5.75x.
- Matchup: Flames vs. Golden Knights
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: SN1
- Top picks: 18-16, +5.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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