Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Fiala Fills It up at Crypto

Prop bet #1: Apple drops for Adam

New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox quarterbacks the No. 1 power-play unit and paced the club in ice time (44:30) in the first two games of Round 1. Despite being on the ice for the second-most expected goals (3.0) over the past two games, he’s yet to register a point. I anticipate the scoring slump being short-lived because Fox’s 2.37 points per 60 minutes rank fourth among all regular defensemen over the past three regular seasons.

The Washington Capitals have also allowed four goals in consecutive games to start the series, including two power-play tallies, so I expect the Rangers to have another strong offensive showing tonight. Fox has cashed in for 26 assists across 27 games during his previous two postseason trips. 

Adam Fox prop: Over 0.5 assists (-110 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Pettersson time in Smashville

Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson has registered just two shots on net despite 15 attempts, so I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in with his shooting efficiency in Game 3. He recorded 7.71 shots on 14.97 attempts per 60 minutes during the regular season, so there’s a huge gap in his 3.05 and 22.88 marks through the first two games against the Nashville Predators.

Additionally, Pettersson is set to center wingers Ilya Mikheyev and Nils Hoglander on Friday, and the trio drove five-on-five possession with a 63.7 Corsi For percentage across a short 55:40 of regular-season ice time. Pettersson posted a 49.5 CF% across a larger 315:46 sample at 5-on-5 when he wasn’t playing with either winger, and he and Hoglander sport a 57.0 CF% over a larger 307:46 sample. Simply put, it projects to be a plus 5-on-5 setup for the center.

I also value Pettersson's odds because he leads the Canucks with eight power-play attempts. The Swedish center has largely avoided going head-to-head against the top Nashville line, and I expect Vancouver head coach Rick Tocchet to continue looking to match his third line against Predators center Ryan O’Reilly and wingers Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist.

Elias Pettersson prop: Over 2.5 shots (+135 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Keep firing up Fiala

The Los Angeles Kings and winger Kevin Fiala return home Friday, and his seven shots and 17 attempts rank second on the club through the first two games of their series against the Edmonton Oilers.

Los Angeles also projects to lean on 11 forwards again Friday, and it was Fiala moving all over the lineup in Game 2 and playing sparingly opposite Edmonton stars Connor McDavid (2:42) and Leon Draisaitl (3:04) at even strength. He’s also fourth among Kings forwards in ice time (36:12) for the series.

Fiala entered the postseason putting more pucks on the net, and he’s cleared this total in five of his past six games. I also think there’s potential for him to improve his shooting efficiency. Fiala has only turned 41.1% of his attempts into shots to start this series, and he converted 48.2% during the regular season.

As long as Fiala's odds are attached to a 2.5-shot total without a crippling vig, I’m going to back the Kings winger in this market. After all, he’s traded at a 3.5 total for long stretches since joining Los Angeles to start the 2022-23 campaign.

Kevin Fiala prop: Over 2.5 shots (-125 at BET99)